It is the beginning of a new year and a new decade, and the oil market has never been more unpredictable.

Will OPEC + expand their cuts? Will the US slate finally come to a standstill? Is this the "Year of the Electric Vehicle"? Here are 10 stories to see in 2020.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Slate debt, slate slowing, The debt-driven slate drilling boom is about to be settled. Around 200 North American oil and gas companies have filed for bankruptcy since 2015, but the mountain of debt that was dissolved a few years ago is finally due. Rough $ 41 billion Debt matures in 2020, which ensures that further bankruptcies will be announced this year. The wave of indebtedness can also force the industry to start the breaks as companies look for cash to pay off creditors. "Data reactid =" 13 ">Slate debt, slate slowing, The debt-driven slate drilling boom is about to be settled. Around 200 North American oil and gas companies have filed for bankruptcy since 2015, but the mountain of debt that was dissolved a few years ago is finally due. Debt of around USD 41 billion will fall due in 2020, ensuring that further bankruptcies will be announced this year. The wave of debt could also force the industry to take breaks as companies look for cash to repay creditors.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Year of EV, Some analysts say 2020 will be the “Year of the Electric Vehicle” as dozens of new electric vehicle models will be launched. In Europe, the EV models available will increase from 100 to 175. The pace of sales slowed at the end of last year, but the entire global automotive market has shrunk. EVs may struggle to keep up the pace of growth, but EVs are growing in part of a shrinking cycle. "Data reactid =" 14 ">Year of EV, Some analysts say 2020 will be the “Year of the Electric Vehicle” as dozens of new electric vehicle models will be launched. In Europe, the EV models available will increase from 100 to 175. The pace of sales slowed at the end of last year, but the entire global automotive market has shrunk. Electric vehicles may struggle to maintain the pace of growth, but electric vehicles are experiencing an increasing share of a shrinking cycle.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "climate Change, 2020 starts like hell pictures from the out of control Australian bushfires. 2019 was one of the warmest years in existence and the 2010s were warmest decade record. As temperatures rise and disasters increase, pressure on the oil and gas industry will continue to increase. As Bloomberg Opinion points out, climate change has increased surged as a cause for concern for listed companies. Oil managers are committed to climate protection, but are well aware of the increasing investment risk. In the past two months, the European Investment Bank has stopped financing for oil, gas and coal, and Goldman Sachs has stopped financing for coal and arctic oil. Further announcements like this are inevitable. "Data reactid =" 15 ">climate Change, 2020 begins with hellish images of the Australian bushfires that have gotten out of control. 2019 was one of the warmest years in existence and the 2010s were the warmest decade in existence. As temperatures rise and disasters increase, pressure on the oil and gas industry will continue to increase. According to Bloomberg Opinion, climate change is a concern for listed companies. Oil managers are committed to climate protection, but are well aware of the increasing investment risk. In the past two months, the European Investment Bank has stopped financing for oil, gas and coal, and Goldman Sachs has stopped financing for coal and arctic oil. Further announcements like this are inevitable.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "See also: Should Arctic Oil Be Stored Underground?"data-reactid =" 16 ">See also: Should Arctic Oil Be Stored Underground?

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "IMO, The IMO's sulfur rules came into force at the beginning of the year. The rules – the lowering of the sulfur concentration limit from 3.5 to 0.5 percent – affect a market for marine fuels with 4 mb / d. Refineries and shippers have used different strategies to meet the requirements, including installing gas scrubbers and starting low-sulfur fuels. The IMO rules used to be an impending catastrophe, but Reuters deals with just a few problems reports There are some problems with sediment in the new fuels. "data-reactid =" 17 ">IMO, The IMO's sulfur rules came into force at the beginning of the year. The rules – the lowering of the sulfur concentration limit from 3.5 to 0.5 percent – affect a market for marine fuels with 4 mb / d. Refineries and shippers have used different strategies to meet the requirements, including installing gas scrubbers and starting low-sulfur fuels. The IMO rules used to be an impending disaster, but according to Reuters, there are some problems with the sediments found in the new fuels.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Oversupply, oversupply, oversupply, Several markets are suffering from oversupply – coal, gas (LNG) and crude oil. While many factors are involved, OPEC + has a huge impact on crude oil. The natural gas flood in the United States will be more difficult to correct, and the natural gas associated with oil could continue to rise despite the financial rubble in the shale gas industry. The global LNG market is also oversupplied as JKM's seasonally low prices reach multi-year lows. Some analysts have even raised the prospect of canceled deliveries as spot prices continue to fall. "Data reactid =" 18 ">Oversupply, oversupply, oversupply, Several markets are suffering from oversupply – coal, gas (LNG) and crude oil. While many factors are involved, OPEC + has a huge impact on crude oil. The natural gas flood in the United States will be more difficult to correct, and the natural gas associated with oil could continue to rise despite the financial rubble in the shale gas industry. The global LNG market is also oversupplied as JKM's seasonally low prices reach multi-year lows. Some analysts have even raised the prospect of canceled deliveries as spot prices continue to fall.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Renewable energies continue to grow, Renewable energy billed for the majority of new capacity expansions in the U.S. in 2019. Energy storage capacity is expected to double in 2020. In the past year, ambitious measures at the state level were announced, which are aimed 100 percent at renewable energies. Have about 10 US utilities announced Decarbonization plans. Renewable energies far exceeded oil and gas reserves last year, but with falling costs and an increasingly cheaper policy for renewable energies, the future looks promising for solar and wind. "Data reactid =" 19 ">Renewable energies continue to grow, Renewables accounted for the majority of capacity expansion in the U.S. in 2019. Energy storage capacity is expected to double in 2020. In the past year, ambitious measures at the state level were announced, which are aimed 100 percent at renewable energies. About 10 U.S. utilities have announced plans to decarbonize. Renewable energies far exceeded oil and gas reserves last year. In view of falling costs and an increasingly favorable policy for renewable energies, the future looks promising for solar and wind.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Geopolitical risks remain, The safest geopolitical risk will continue to appear on the oil markets. The year started with a stalemate at the US embassy in Baghdad that followed the US airstrikes a few days earlier. The immediate location poses little risk to oil supplies, but the incident is due to the unrest in Basra, where much of the country's oil is concentrated. In addition, the crisis in Iraq is actually a proxy battle between the United States and Iran, a conflict that has flared up again. Civil war in Libya, sanctions and unrest in Venezuela as well as other regional conflicts in the Middle East are just a few of the many potential hot spots in 2020. "data-reactid =" 20 ">Geopolitical risks remain, The safest geopolitical risk will continue to appear on the oil markets. The year started with a stalemate at the US embassy in Baghdad that followed the US airstrikes a few days earlier. The immediate location poses little risk to oil supplies, but the incident is due to the unrest in Basra, where much of the country's oil is concentrated. In addition, the crisis in Iraq is actually a proxy battle between the United States and Iran, a conflict that has flared up again. Civil war in Libya, sanctions and unrest in Venezuela and other regional conflicts in the Middle East are just a few of the many potential hot spots in 2020.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Related: Big banks are turning Bearish on Oil the following year"data-reactid =" 21 ">Related: Big banks are turning Bearish on Oil the following year

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "De-escalation of the trade war, The global economy may have avoided recession, and some indicators have developed positively in recent months. The tariff cut between the United States and China also indicates a weakening of the economic headwind. Every turn of the trade war had a huge impact on oil prices in 2019, and the thaw between Washington and Beijing gave a boost at the end of the year. A further de-escalation – or a relapse into confrontation – will have an enormous impact on the raw material markets in 2020. "Data reactid =" 22 ">De-escalation of the trade war, The global economy may have avoided recession, and some indicators have developed positively in recent months. The tariff cut between the United States and China also indicates a weakening of the economic headwind. Every turn of the trade war had a huge impact on oil prices in 2019, and the thaw between Washington and Beijing gave a boost at the end of the year. A further de-escalation – or a relapse into confrontation – will have an enormous impact on the raw material markets in 2020.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Shale gas-oil ratio, Not only the US slate drills have financial problems, but also the operational challenges are getting bigger. There were disappointed wellbore hopes in 2019, with some high profile disappointments related to parent-child well disruption. There is also evidence that the tendency of slate wells to produce more gas over their lifetime is a worse problem than previously thought. In the meantime, the WSJ reported that there are slate wells do not produce as much as companies had promised. The year 2020 could bring further unpleasant surprises through the slate field. "Data reactid =" 27 ">Shale gas-oil ratio, Not only the US slate drills have financial problems, but also the operational challenges are getting bigger. There were disappointed wellbore hopes in 2019, with some high profile disappointments related to parent-child well disruption. There is also evidence that the tendency of slate wells to produce more gas over their lifetime is a worse problem than previously thought. In the meantime, the WSJ reported that slate wells no longer produce as much as companies had promised. In 2020, the slate field could bring further undesirable surprises.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "2020 election, While every election in the recent past has been billed as the most important, it is the 2020 US presidential election. Trump's re-election would ensure that the oil and gas industry continues to receive full support despite the worsening climate crisis. A possible democratic victory could result in a ban on fracking, new regulations and other taxes on fossil fuels, while there is potentially massive support for renewable energies. There is a lot at stake. "Data reactid =" 28 ">2020 election, While every election in the recent past has been billed as the most important, it is the 2020 US presidential election. Trump's re-election would ensure that the oil and gas industry continues to receive full support despite the worsening climate crisis. A possible democratic victory could result in a ban on fracking, new regulations and other taxes on fossil fuels, while there is potentially massive support for renewable energies. A lot is at stake.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

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