There are two reasons why I chose to take over San Francisco via Kansas City in Sunday's Super Bowl:
1. Better defensive team, especially in front. 2. Much better running team that allows the 49ers to control the watch in the fourth quarter.
Bottom line: 49ers 24, Chiefs 21.
Yes, I also like the sub, especially when the weather pushes the number 55 or higher.
Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead, who were all drawn in the first round, will target Patrick Mahomes. This quartet increased the Niners' bag count from 2.3 last season to 3.2 this year.
No question, Mahomes is special. He moves well in his pocket and, as a former baseball shortstop, throws on the run while using different arm angles. He faces a 3-2 win against the game's most mobile quarterbacks – 2-0 against Kyler Murray, 1-1 against Russell Wilson and 0-1 against Lamar Jackson.
Mahomes and the Chiefs defeated you with the deep ball, but I expect the fierce rush of 49ers will prevent Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman from dominating their 40-yard secondary team.
The other big advantage for the 49ers is football. Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman (questionable after a shoulder injury in the last game) and Matt Breida were on average 144 meters per game, second in the NFL. The chiefs had an average of less than 100 rushing yards per game.
But the NFL is a temporary league, do you think? Listen. Teams that run the ball better in the Super Bowl are 39-13. (The roaring mileage was just one year.)
Kyle Shanahan's offense is based on motion, misdirection, and three vital gears – the close end of George Kittle, full-back Kyle Juszczyk, and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
For their positions, Kittle and Juszczyk are elite blockers, and believe it or not, Garoppolo threw a touchdown pass more than Mahomes this season, 27-26. Garoppolo also threw more interceptions, 13-5.
If you're a Chiefs fan and hope I'm wrong, interceptions are your greatest hope. Teams that lost the sales fight only won six Super Bowls.
I hope you get some tickets this week because that's what it's about.