There are two games on Sunday to end the division round of the NFL playoffs. In both cases, let's examine important statistics and betting patterns.
Kansas City (-9½) v Houston, 3:05 PM, CBS
Texans: 13th attack, 28th defense, 7th schedule, even sales margin
Chefs: Sixth attack, 17th defense, 15th schedule, plus eight sales margins
(Regular Season Statistics Leaderboards… Strength of leaderboard leaderboards from Jeff Sagarin's market data at USA Today). Clear edges according to K.C. in all facets of the game, even if you've dealt a little bit with Houston's harder schedule.
It's worth noting that Kansas City's defense has improved across the board and is likely to do better than "17th" suggests. You've probably seen the chiefs win 23:16 in New England. They only allowed three points per person for Denver and Chicago over the next two weeks. This defensive improvement has hit the betting markets. Kansas City is 5-0-1 against the spread in its last six games.
Similar to Tennessee-Baltimore on Saturday, audiences will likely bet the favorite at 9¹ / ₂ or less, with the Sharps betting on the underdog value at the key number of +10.
- The case for Kansas City: Houston had to rally last week to survive the less dynamic Buffalo. The Texans' defeat at Baltimore (41: 7) in mid-November could indicate that Houston is unwilling to keep up with the league's elite. The Chiefs are elite, and their improved defense makes them better than losing to Houston in the sixth week.
- The case for Houston: Quarterback Deshaun Watson will not go down without a fight. The Texans are able to score late to sneak through the back door, even if they drop 11-16 points. Plus, Kansas City head coach Andy Reid's playoff story isn't exactly outstanding.
Green Bay (-4) v Seattle, 6.40pm, Fox
Seahawks: eighth attack, 26th defense, first schedule, plus 12 sales margin
Packer: 18th attack, 18th defense, 26th schedule, plus 12 sales margin
If Seattle were perfectly healthy and both teams were equally calm, this line would definitely be under a field goal. Green Bay was unable to convince during the regular season despite a difficult schedule. The positive sales advantage from the experience of quarterback Aaron Rodgers is offset here by similar strengths for Seattle and Russell Wilson.
Sharp hold up time. This allows more comprehensive information about Seattle's health and the weather at the start. Public weather, which supports all fresh favorites, hit the Packers with -3 ½ / -4 and -4. We can see a very strong interest in the outsider before the whistle at +4 or more if the game indicators for the Seahawks are positive.
- The case for Green Bay: Seattle faded down the route. It ended the regular season with a 0: 3: 1 ATS and turned a statistical router into a 17: 9 biter in Philadelphia that was hit by injuries.
- The case for Seattle: Our statistics profile shows that the Packers may be a playoff pretender. They may not have ranked in the top 20 on either side of the ball compared to an average league schedule. Bettors should take more than one field target against likely contenders.