The writer-analyst Ruchir Sharma and Dr. NDTV's Prannoy Roy discussed the top 10 trends of the coming decade. The discussion said that the decade 2010-19 belonged to the United States. The USA has dominated in the past few years like never before. The country's share of the world economy has risen to a whopping 25 percent. You also mentioned China's contribution to the global economy, which rose from 9 to 16 percent.
NDTV: Hello and welcome to one of my favorite shows of the year and one for which we get a lot of positive feedback at NDTV. I am, of course, talking about the Ruchir Sharma Show, in which he predicts what will happen to the economy and the world next year. And how should we all avoid the dangers ahead and take advantage of the good jobs ahead? The big difference to Ruchir's show is that everything is based on solid research and analysis, as well as deep, deep data analysis. Believe me.
That also makes him one of the most successful people on Wall Street. He is also a very, very successful author of several books, including some on the New York Times bestseller list. In fact, Ruchir wrote a great book on the elections in India called "Democracy on the Road". And remember, he's released a new book, "The 10 Rules of Successful Nations," that will be coming out soon. Today's program is slightly different from the previous ones. Instead of just looking at next year, Ruchir will predict the big changes that are likely to happen in the next decade, the 2020s. All of these forecasts are based on trends that have occurred in the decade that has just ended. Ruchir, are you linking what you have learned from the past decade and based on your prediction of what will happen on this basis or not?
Ruchir Sharma: You know, Prannoy, one of the most fascinating things I've found in all of our research is that there is a very strong decadic pattern that when you look at post-World War II history you find that trends are often caused by a a decade is defined and although it does not mean at the beginning of a decade that a trend has to change just because the calendar changes. But it's amazing how often that happened.
Ruchir Sharma: Sometimes it's just a coincidence and sometimes there is an event in the world where the trend seems to be changing. So you had the global financial crisis of 2008 in the last decade, which meant a big shift.
Ruchir Sharma: In the ten years before, there was the tech boom bust cycle that happened at the turn of the decade.
Ruchir Sharma: And that was a decade earlier in Japan when the Japanese bubble burst.
Ruchir Sharma: And the beginning of the bubble started on January 1, 1990.
NDTV: So you're basically learning from all of these changes you've seen in the past, and you and your forecast will connect the two, the two tens with the two twenties.
Ruchir Sharma: So there are some things that we will continue. Yes. Most of the time the trend changes or continues to develop. And I think that's what we're focusing on today and why we're doing a decade rather than a yearly run today.
NDTV: Big. And what is essential, we will go through so much ground because we have 10 years. So let's start and go through the 10 most important trends that will emerge in the next ten years, the 2020s.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes
NDTV: The first and all 2020s will be based on trends that occurred in the 2010s. Let's look at the first trend. The 2010s were America's decade, according to Ruchir. Well, according to the United States, the United States' share of the world economy rose to 25%. Things went up when many people thought that this would be the end of America. America's share of the world economy rose to 25%. Compare that to Europe. It fell sharply to 15% of the global economy. All of Europe, 15% share of the world economy. China rose from around 9% to 16% and almost doubled. The huge increase in China and India rose from 2.7, 2.8 to 3.4. But it got a little faster, but it was America's decade. Go ahead when you look at the effects. For example, look at what America's decade meant for financial returns as a financial superpower. From 2010 to 2019, America dominated like never before. The returns in America that you made on the stock market were two hundred and fifty six percent this decade. Right, Ruchir?
Ruchir Sharma: Yes
NDTV: And next Europe, do you think 75? This is huge. What a difference.
Ruchir Sharma: I agree. I think that for me this is the key differentiator, as you said, that even Chinese GDP rose from 9 to 16.
Ruchir Sharma: But what has really made America's world power this decade is that America, as a financial superpower, has never dominated it as it …
NDTV: That's great
Ruchir Sharma: … and the American stock market alone now accounts for 56%
NDTV: … the global stock exchange
Ruchir Sharma: … the global market value. This is a new high for America. So the economy is 25, but the stock market accounts for 56% of the global market value.
NDTV: You speak. The figures you mentioned for China are 72%. That is just over a third of America and the emerging markets in India. 49% in India, around 46% more in the entire decade. So, huge dominance of America. It's amazing to know everyone, okay, America has done well, but this kind of dominance is startling from this data.
Ruchir Sharma: Right. And I will only raise one point here regarding India's data. As you can see, dollar returns just weren't that impressive this decade. It's very different from the past decade. Oh I understand. And even for domestic investors, domestic investors in India don't care what the dollar yield is. They cared a lot more about it. How much they get diabetes. Yes. But a very important point, and that's why the dollar is returning. It is also so much lower that inflation was relatively high in India. So, although it looks good, returns will go to the Sensex, which has somewhat doubled over the entire decade of the 2010s. The Nifty performed so well nominally. But if you look at it in real terms, when adjusted for inflation, annual stock market returns in India were less than 5% a year. That's it. That's it. Much lower than in the past decade. And as for America, real yields in America were obviously very close to nominal changes due to the low inflation. What do you have in india So that was the big difference in terms of the rate profile you mentioned.
NDTV: Very interesting finding that there is a different type of winner every decade. The big winners of every decade, take a look at the big winners of the past 50 years. Every decade had a big winner and another from one decade to the next. The decade of the 1950s belongs to Europe. The 1960s belonged to the United States. The 1970s, basically goods, dominate the path of the 1980s. Japan can hardly remember it. But gosh, they did very well. The 1990s were back in the United States. That is four decades later and then the 2000 emerging markets. This is because you are targeting emerging markets. Right. A coincidence that returned to the United States in 2010. So, yes, he has three top positions there. In 2010 we just saw a huge dominance. And now we're going to look ahead on that basis. Who will fall into disrepair Who will dominate the 2020s?
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. And I'm going to make a point here. What exactly do I mean when it comes to dominance? Yes. In all of these cases, these markets grew approximately five to ten times, while an enormous amount of profits had to be made in this decade. And also the fact that it became very euphoric at the end of the decade. Everyone thought that this trend would continue. And then in the decades to come, we'll find that all of these trends have basically stalled. The good expectations have become too high. Complacency built up in those countries that did so well. Japan, as you mentioned, was at its peak in 1989. Right. The Japanese stock market accounted for 45% of the world market value. My car, 45%. This is how you get blisters that accumulate frequently by the end of the decade, not every time, but you do. And that tells you that. It's a team that inspires the imagination of the world every ten years.
NDTV: And this question mark if you know who's going to be next. You could win 5 to 10 percent. So this idea came up five to ten times. So 5 to 10 percent. It's for him every week. Okay, you know, the interesting point you make for Ruchir is who controls the person who controls a decade? If you just take a look at how they will collapse in the next decade. You spoke of a bubble. So the big winner in a decade will be a big loser in the next decade. Look at the dates that …
Ruchir Sharma: … is not the winning decade.
NDTV: But it won't be America. Yes, that's a big deal to say because 56% of the stock market …
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, because it feels best at the peak. Things are going really well. America today is the longest economic expansion in America's history that dates back almost 200 years. Yes.
NDTV: Right right
Ruchir Sharma: The unemployment rate in America is now at a 50-year low. So the whole idea is that this is about as good as possible for America, and sometime in the next year or two, if you have the next recession in America, I think things will change and the rest of the world will emerge stronger afterwards because so many countries, from Europe to India and even Japan, are forced to clean up the chaos of the past decade that has been created here. Once this is done, these countries will be in a better position to start …
NDTV: I think what's so amazing about this kind of analysis is that this is the time when everyone thinks America is great. Just focus on America.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, because remember, when we did this show a decade ago, and it really is, and we talked about it, and I wrote about it extensively, at that point the world was crazy about the emerging markets. BRICS should rule the world.
NDTV: That's because you were responsible for emerging markets
Ruchir Sharma: So you should rule the world.
NDTV: You misled everyone.
Ruchir Sharma: All projections were …
NDTV: No, but you did it
Ruchir Sharma: … a linear …
NDTV: You have always been optimistic about America in this decade.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes that's right.
NDTV: That is against the trend.
Ruchir Sharma: That was my basic conclusion when I wrote my first book, Breakout Nations, which said that I was very skeptical of BRICS domination and that America could be the winner of this decade because of its technological capabilities.
NDTV: Right right.
Ruchir Sharma: I wish I had followed my own advice more, but now we're here.
NDTV: Everyone follows your advice and you don't follow your own. Chalo theek hai, I understand. We come to the second top trend of the 2020s. Well, that has to do with big companies. Let us first link it to what happened in the 2010s, the last decade that is just coming to an end. Big companies got bigger. Take a look at the share of the ten largest companies and how it grew from 2010 to 2019. From 9% to 14%. Well, it's actually a huge increase in real terms.
Ruchir Sharma: This is the share of world exchanges. That the top 10 companies accounted for 9% of their value in the global stock markets is now 14%. This is again close to the highs we saw at the height of the tech bubble in 1998, 2000, when a handful of companies dominated.
Ruchir Sharma: The large companies in India have also grown above all in the past three years. And the top 10 companies in India today make up 55% of India's market capitalization and are also very large in India. But in India the difference is that this has always been the case in India. It has increased in the past three years. But in general the top 10 dominated
NDTV: Dominates much more than the rest of the world.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, the rest of the world, on average even the rest of the emerging markets. But now in the world, too, we've seen this surge, with the top 10 companies dominating …
NDTV: Does that mean there is more inequality in India? If the top 10 do so well, so much higher?
Ruchir Sharma: That's right. That's kind of the impact of it. But we'll go into more detail about what that means in terms of increasing inequality.
NDTV: Right. So let's get to what this actually means in terms of what will happen in the next decade. Two companies that did well. Look at that. The top 10 stocks of a decade will actually struggle in the next decade. I mean, that's a big change. For example, look at what happens to the percentage increase in the top 10 stocks in a decade? Two thousand and one hundred percent profit in a decade. That … to get into the top ten you have to have something like that. But in the next decade, only 65 percent profit, the same shares, two thousand one hundred percent to sixty five percent. So you have to be very careful if you just say, oh, it's going so well, let's invest in it, because the tendency is that you're going to make it terrible and collapse in the next ten years.
Ruchir Sharma: Therefore, the two thousand one hundred number here is important to explain that these are the ten largest contemporary companies that have grown as much as they have in the world.
Ruchir Sharma: It is important, however, that nine of these companies were not in the top 10 at the beginning of the decade.
NDTV: Right. Right.
Ruchir Sharma: So this win is huge. But if you are in the top 10 at the end of a decade, then in the decades that follow, does that go back to my big topic of this discussion we have today and where the winners of a decade are really the winners of the following decade?
NDTV: Are the losers of the following decade.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. In this regard, they ultimately become losers, and in fact they are winners at both country and stock level, as we see this pattern
NDTV: We don't actually see that again, the next time the data is output it is really an eye opener for me. Let's take a look at the top 10 companies over the past five decades. And you only see the jug, jug is the norm. If you are in the top 10 in a decade, you rarely or never have one out of 10 chances to be in the top 10 in the next decade. The ten largest companies in a decade are almost completely different in the next decade. Check out Exxon Mobile, Wal-Mart, etc. 30 years ago, and then 20 years ago. Very few are left, Microsoft enters, and Wal-Mart is the only one left.
Ruchir Sharma: And General Electric, just two companies.
NDTV: Two companies left. Then, ten years ago, his Microsoft is basically still there. So that's it. Quite a different lot today, but Microsoft. Microsoft was in the top 10 for three decades this decade because of Satya Nadella.
Ruchir Sharma: Right.
NDTV: It has dropped to 300 billion and he has brought it to 800 billion. Some of you know the numbers better, but something like that.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, but you can see the brain drain here, that's it. Yes, I think a lot of people are really surprised, which means that at the beginning of this decade, nine of the ten largest companies in the world weren't in the top 10 ,
NDTV: That's easy.
Ruchir Sharma: Incredible amount of profit. And some of these companies wouldn't even have been in the top 100 in the ranking at the beginning of this decade. The profits were so significant. But also a problem, because many of them are now quite expensive after having been so highly valued in this decade. And they also have to deal with the obsolescence that occurs in some of these industries.
NDTV: Right. I think the fascinating thing is that one in 10 survives in the top 10. I mean.
Ruchir Sharma: In every subsequent decade. That's right.
NDTV: It is simply an amazing jug. These are the big companies. What about the smaller companies? Are you probably feeling bad, Ruchir? Let’s take a look at what you’re saying. In fact, you say that small businesses in the U.S. are likely to regain their footing and that the U.S. will be a signal to the rest of the world. But small businesses have rarely been this depressed compared to large businesses. Look at that. The percentage growth of large companies versus small companies and large companies in America increased by 230 percent. Small business 110. That's less than half. And in India, let's look at what has happened in India in the past decade. Large companies grew by 115%, small companies by 6%. So this is not a worrying signal because small companies, large companies have done it in the past. In fact, small companies are often better than larger companies. But this decade is so bad. Yes. Do you think they could recover?
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. Because one thing we look at is more from an investment perspective than valuations.
Ruchir Sharma: The point here is that the ratings of these small businesses are not only in the US but in emerging markets in India.
Ruchir Sharma: The valuations of these small companies compared to today's large companies are also pretty depressed. Compare with the story we're looking at.
Ruchir Sharma: I think that's another fundamental argument for why small businesses could do better. Now there are other reasons. It just won't happen based on ratings. This is also due to the fact that the business environment for small businesses may become more favorable. Given the platforms you have today, it could be easier whether it's Amazon, other, or large companies, or the platforms also offer some small businesses the opportunity to gain market share faster. You are looking for a catch-up company …
NDTV: Small businesses like NDTV and everything, and they're big companies like Morgan Stanley
Ruchir Sharma: Right.
NDTV: Sorry, cut that off. Large companies around the world will not do as well. It's not allowed …
Ruchir Sharma: … relatively speaking.
NDTV: Yes. So let's look at the second of the 10 most important trends for the 2020s for the coming decade. Number two, let's take a look at what's there: New large companies are likely to emerge, the existing top 10 companies are unlikely to be there in the next decade. And smaller companies can be beautiful again. Small can be beautiful again. That's nice. So it's just a return to what was in the past. I mean, this small business depression is unusual.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes that's right.
NDTV: Really bad.
Ruchir Sharma: I think that has two parts. One of the top ten will be if the story is a guide. If we do this in 10 years, we'll look at the top 10 companies. Nine of …
NDTV: Do not worry !! we will only say tick, tick. We are all right.
Ruchir Sharma: 9 of the top 10 companies are likely to be different from the list we see today. If the story is a guide and similar, I think that in many small businesses, the winners will be more prominent than the big cohort.
NDTV: Right. Now let's look at your third top trend of 10. This is about technology companies that really have the edge in the last ten years of 2010. Tech stocks really ruled in the 2020s. So let's take a look at how global equity markets are growing, or if you want to say that technology stocks grew 325% this decade. Let's take a look at the next one, consumer goods, much lower, 200%. Finance company, 100%; Wall Street didn't do it well, did it? And commodities, we used to have commodities for a decade, if you remember this chart, only returned 30%. This is really a big change.
Ruchir Sharma: And I think that somehow people forget it, but if you go back and read all the financial literature from a decade ago, people say the opposite.
Ruchir Sharma: As was the consensus, that we are in a goods super cycle; that commodity prices have to rise. The world has …
NDTV: Consumer goods, explain what they are
Ruchir Sharma: Oil, copper, aluminum. These were the hottest companies in 2000 and 2010. In this decade.
NDTV: 2000 to 2010. Correct.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes that's right. And now we have seen that it was a complete flip. The same diagram in 2010 would have looked the other way around, commodity companies would have grown three to four times and technology companies would have done nothing. So emigration is the norm, again the message, if you look at the world from an industrial perspective.
NDTV: And indeed, as you said, if you looked back 10-15 years ago, you would have said "BRICS, this is the future" and just look at what happened to BRICS compared to the FANGs. Now we're not going to tell you what BRICS and FANGs are, Ruchir will. Well, FANGs are all technology companies. FANGs were in fact unpredictably the new BRICS. Take a look at the difference between the two, price gains or returns on the stock markets. FANGs gave 634% return and BRICS 37%. BRICS, Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and FANGs are Facebook, Alphabet and …
Ruchir Sharma: Netflix. Amazon for A and G for Google, because now of course it's like alphabet, but in terms of the big picture here, this is. Which is it and we talked about it, I remember the middle of the decade that the world loves acronyms. FANGs became the new acronym to define the decade. During the 2000s it was BRICS. So technology took over and these emerging markets have delivered very poor returns over the past decade. So …
NDTV: And they were the hot topic of 15 years ago, right? BRICS
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, 10-15 years ago, as you know, BRICS. And as you know, people came up with all sorts of acronyms related to new emerging markets. Instead, technology dominated.
NDTV: The FANGs, it's a little bit bad, FANGs. But you see a kind of concern in it. Let's look at this concern. This technology flourished relatively because it was free from government regulations and could change. Let's take a look at how government regulations have affected different industries. Manufacturing there are 215.00 official regulations
Ruchir Sharma: In the USA …
NDTV: We'll talk about the United States, yes. 128,000 regulations in financial companies. In Media and Telecom 99,000 there should be too many regulations that are zero. And in the technical area 27,000. 27,000 compared to 215,000, much more freedom, much more ability for entrepreneurship and development. But you say that could change?
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, because the political pressure is increasing. Rather, the political pressure is about how these technology companies should be regulated. Due to data problems or privacy issues.
NDTV: All monopolies or dominance, etc. Why can't politicians just leave us alone?
Ruchir Sharma: But I think the opposite is also happening, which is very important to see. Especially in America, there is a lot of deregulation that has been going on in recent years. In fact, one of the rules that the business world likes about the Trump administration is that it is introduced and that you have to take out two others for each new regulation you introduce. And that's something that I think is worth doing in India too. So it's not just about regulating technology, it's also about de-regulating the other sectors
NDTV: But we have a Jugaad system in which we introduce one large rule and remove two small ones. One is two ho jayega. Jugaad. The Indian Jugaad system
Ruchir Sharma: Many companies claim that deregulation is now helping other industries. While tech is at increased risk for …
NDTV: That's right. You get a lot of pressure to say that they are over the dominant markets and all kinds of privacy …
Ruchir Sharma: There is even talk of antitrust laws. So this is a lengthy process, but this pressure is building up
NDTV: Totally right. But. You noticed that great technicians are slowing down. It’s already happening. If you just take a look at it, it's amazing how big the slowdown was. If you look at the last decade, you will see growth rates decrease in terms of number of users, in terms of market share, etc. Check it out: Active users on Facebook are below, the growth rate is from 48% below, now it's 8%. Snapchat 92%, up to 16% growth rate. This is active users and Twitter 72% and no growth rate in 2019. That's a worry, a big worry.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes.
NDTV: So, of course there is a basic problem here. They were much smaller in the beginning
Ruchir Sharma: Basic effect yes. That is why even the returns are less impressive because you are growing up, wanting growth and are already a bit mature. And so are the returns, so this type of bond to the earlier point that returns will slow down after a big decade of growth.
NDTV: Right. To sum it up in one sentence: Number three of the top 10 trends is: Number three is the potential decline in big tech. There's a potential for big tech to sink, and that means everyone says tech is the future, so it's pretty contraindicated.
Ruchir Sharma: Well, tech would still be the future, but the companies that dominated are likely to change. And we're coming back, this list that we had seen from the top 10 companies before. At the height of the tech bubble in 1999, 7 of the 10 largest companies in the world were tech companies. But other than Microsoft, the other six names, you probably won't even remember it. Including the world's ciscos that were on this list. Many of them have underperformed since then. And Nokia was considered the hottest cellular company …
NDTV: Yes, my god
Ruchir Sharma: …See you. And it's not on a list at all today. So the problem is that it's not just about technology. It is about the companies that dominate today being exposed to competitive pressures and obsolescence. Therefore these lists change. Right. And we've seen that between the two tech booms we've seen in this decade have changed over the past decade and the one in the 1990s when Microsoft was the only survivor.
NDTV: So let's move on to your fourth doctrine. It's about de-globalization, it happened and we all read about it. However, here is current data on how strong de-globalization is and how it could affect the 2020s. In the 2010s, de-globalization was pretty violent after the boom, the global trade boom for a while, then it had just peaked and is on the way down. Just look at the numbers. From 30% to 60%, from 70% to 2008, and then it just came down, so that 30-60 could have dropped to 70 instead of 70, it's 56. It came down. The trend has changed, that's the key.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. So I think that is the share of global GDP that we thought for a long time that global trade needs to continue to grow. And it did. They had this hyperglobalization in the 80s and 90s. And that only has to do with trade. But when it comes to the other factors of globalization, we have seen a reversal on many fronts. We have seen capital flows and even people flow. Die Migrationsströme haben sich verlangsamt, weil all die Rhetorik gegen Migranten aufgegriffen wurde. Sogar in Bezug auf die digitalen Flüsse Jetzt werden Ökosysteme entwickelt, die unabhängig voneinander sind, US-amerikanische und chinesische Gebäude. Es ist also alles Teil der De-Globalisierung, die stattfindet
NDTV: Handel ist globaler Handel. Hat es auch etwas anderes zu tun, ist es Trump? Die De-Globalisierung? China angreifen?
Ruchir Sharma: Das ist richtig. Ich denke, Trump hat es beschleunigt, aber ich denke, dass es auch vorher passiert ist.
NDTV: Es war sowieso ein Trend
Ruchir Sharma: Es war sowieso ein Trend. Wir haben bereits vor der Machtübernahme von Trump darüber gesprochen, dass die Anzahl der Länder, die protektionistische Maßnahmen ergreifen, einschließlich Indien, Russland, all diese Länder protektionistische Maßnahmen ergreifen. Dies begann ziemlich genau nach der globalen Finanzkrise von 2008.
NDTV: Richtig und damit verbunden ist eine Zeit des Vertrauensmangels. Ära des Misstrauens. Schauen Sie sich nur den Unterschied an, wie Menschen großen Marken vertrauen. Das wachsende Misstrauen gegenüber großen Marken. Das ist was passiert. Der Prozentsatz der Menschen, die großen Unternehmen und ihren Marken nicht vertrauen, war 2012, 30 Prozent trauten ihnen nicht. Und jetzt, im Jahr 2017, ist das auf 45 Prozent gestiegen. Das ist fast die Hälfte. Und vielleicht könnte es bis 2019, wenn die endgültigen Daten herauskommen, hoch sein. Sehr großes Misstrauen. Nun, warum passiert das?
Ruchir Sharma: Nun, ich denke, dass es auf mehreren Ebenen passiert ist. Einer der Hauptgründe dafür ist der Nationalismus. Ich habe chinesische Umfragen zu diesem Thema gesehen.
Ruchir Sharma: Und sie sagen, dass ein Grund dafür, dass sie nicht mehr US-Marken verwenden möchten, die erhöhte Feindseligkeit gegenüber den USA ist.
Ruchir Sharma: Wir sehen also, dass große multinationale Konzerne von dieser Bedrohung betroffen sein werden. Das heißt, dass über die Grenzen hinweg aufgrund der Nationalität Misstrauen aufgebaut wird.
NDTV: Baut sich aber auch in Amerika Misstrauen auf? Für die eigenen Unternehmen?
Ruchir Sharma: Yes.
NDTV: Ich meine, vor allem die Tech-Unternehmen.
Ruchir Sharma: Absolut. Es ist eine wirklich große Veränderung, die darin besteht, dass vor fünf, zehn Jahren die Technologietitanen alle gefeiert wurden, als diese guten Milliardäre, wie Sie sagten, diese Art von …
NDTV: Ja, ja.
Ruchir Sharma: Nun In der Tat, wenn Sie sich Publikationen wie The Economist ansehen, zählen sie Tech-Milliardäre zu den schlechten Milliardären. Das ist also der große Umschwung, der sich in diesem Misstrauen gegenüber großen Marken, insbesondere globalen Marken, widerspiegelt.
NDTV: Richtig und Ihr Nationalismus-Teil hat den lokalen Marken und Naturprodukten und etwas Einheimischem einen Schub verliehen. Schauen Sie doch mal rein. Was ist eigentlich in Indien los? Indien, Sie haben einen Anstieg der lokalen Naturprodukte gesehen. Nun, was bedeutet das? Schau es dir an. Der prozentuale Marktanteil lokaler Marken in Indien lag 2010 bei nur 8% und hat sich inzwischen auf 17% mehr als verdoppelt. Das ist also wieder gegen multinationale Konzerne und Menschen, die mit enormen Finanzen zusammenarbeiten. Dennoch haben unsere lokalen Marken begonnen, sich gut zu behaupten. Hier haben Sie einen einfachen Durchschnitt von Zahnpasta, Shampoo, Hautpflege usw. genommen. Aber das ist ein Trend.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. Also, in Bezug auf wie hier jetzt viel mehr von lokalen Marken. And I think that it's partly to do with nationalisation and that's how you have some companies even advertising that we are. Saying that you should buy our brands because these are locally manufactured. So, I think that this there's some powerful resonance to saying that the goods have been made here uh locally and uh a much greater belief also in some of the local ingredients, ayurvedic and other things. But I think that this is a really big change which is going on and
NDTV: Yes, and again, global, but it's certainly hitting India as well. Wonderful. I mean, it's actually a positive. I don't know …
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, across products.
NDTV: Yes, yes, across products. Another area which is slightly different. But localization of data storage, we know countries don't want their data on their economy to be stored in America or somewhere else. They want it in their own country. As much nationalization nationalism as governments also want to keep a way to scrutinize it and have the right handle. So, the data localisation is on the rise. Just have a look at how the data has changed. Protectionist policies that require data to be stored locally is now in vogue. In 2010 45% of data used to be stored locally. Now it's 85% desire to store locally.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. Isn't that like the number of measures being taken?
NDTV: So, I'll do that again then. These are numbers, yes, okay. So, if we look at data localisation that people want storage of data locally, it's increasing every year. Let's look at Ruchir's data on that. All the research that he's used for this data. Data localisation is on the rise. Protectionist policies that require data to be stored locally are going up the number of policies. If you look in 2010, there were about forty five policies and now eighty five. That's nearly double. So, this whole trend that it's got to be within my country, you can't have it outside part of nationalism, part of surveillance.
Ruchir Sharma: Right. And protectionism. So, it is all coming together. So, you spoke about deglobalization and now we spoke about localization. It's all sort of coming together in terms of …
NDTV: My worry is that this is more politicians say we want to be national, but actually politicians feeling we need to we need it for surveillance.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, that's obviously something which politicians will do.
NDTV: Come on, speak out. Be a man
Ruchir Sharma: In terms of what's convenient for them.
NDTV: Okay, so the summary of the number, the fourth of your top 10 trends of the 2020s, number four is that there's deep globalization and that's making way for localization and that we've seen even in India. And it's quite a big change. So, is this so you're talking about localization going into the 2020s as a major new thrust? It's already gone up quite a bit and that's going to carry on.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, I think so, because as I said, that I don't see these waves which come of globalization. They didn't do last, not just years, but decades. And the rise in nationalist sentiment, this is also something which seemed like an enduring theme. So, if you're going to have deglobalization, you're going to have nationalism, more protectionism. All these, I think, are likely to support local brands much more than global brands.
NDTV: Right. Moving on to number five out of the top 10. And this is a very important point that you highlight a lot, and that is the shrinking working population, people who can go out and actually work. That growth rate is dropping fast and that affects the growth rate of the economy. Just look at this, people of working age. That growth rate is slowing around the world, including in India. In 1950 to 2005, 8, on the average growth rate of the working age population was about 1.8. Now it's down to 1%. You know, that kind of drop in population growth rates is huge, much more than people actually. The figures just appear. It's a huge change.
Ruchir Sharma: And so different from, again, the narrative of the 70s and 80s and which I think many politicians, including in India, are still stuck with that we need a population control policy. But as we'll see that everywhere, we're seeing a huge decline now take place in the population growth rates and …
NDTV: Working age
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, resulting in a big decline in the working age population growth rates, which are people between the age of 15 to 64.
Ruchir Sharma: And I think that this is something which is so underappreciated that there are two drivers of economic growth. The number of people who come to work …
Ruchir Sharma: …and their productivity.
Ruchir Sharma: That's just a very simple …
Ruchir Sharma: …economic equation.
Ruchir Sharma: And it typically, historically both have contributed to economic growth in equal measure.
Ruchir Sharma: So, if your population growth rate of the working age population in particular is going to slow down or nearly half …
NDTV: Is going to affect your growth rate
Ruchir Sharma: …is going to, it has to affect your economic growth rate.
Ruchir Sharma: And I think that that switch people haven't made as yet. We keep speaking about the growth rates, whether India wants 7, 8% or even China wants 6 or US, you know, Trump's support is about 3,4, 5 kind of percent growth rates. Those growth rates with these kind of population trends we have, have become impossible to achieve and we refuse to accept that.
NDTV: We have to shift mind. We have to shift our whole attitude to what is possible, giving this drop, working a number of workers available. And you don't think productivity improvements through tech will compensate for that drop?
Ruchir Sharma: We will see why not in a bit. But so far, there's no evidence that the productivity increases have been somewhat disappointing given the tech boom that we have seen other people talk about data quality not being measured properly. But I think it's got to do with other trends as we will see in the show.
NDTV: Okay. Globally, working age to pool of working age growth rate is dropping. So, having fewer people joining the work force. India. to just have a look at it's not quite the same as global different figures, but India is no exception. Working age population growth is slowing in India dramatically as well. If you look at the growth rate of the working age used to be about 2.5% a year, it's now down to 1.4 globally. It's one from 1.8 to one year, 2.5 to 1.4, which is also a dramatic change in India.
Ruchir Sharma: Yet we forget here in India, too, that in the 1960s, the average family, the fertility rate, the number of kids that they would have would be about five or six. Now we're down to about two. A bit about the average will change. It's a huge change that's taking place. So, you have it both in terms of birth rates going down and people are living longer. But the birth rates have really, really declined in India as well. And if you have a working age population growing at just 1.4%, right. It is extremely difficult for your economy to grow about 5 or 6% to get the balance from. Productivity is very tough. It's very tough. And that's what we've seen with other countries, too.
NDTV: More was actually another startling factor. The two another was that. It's not growing at 1% or 1.5. Many countries with negative growth rate, the working population is going down. We have a look at what Ruchir calls deep population. The population of the working age, people of the working age population is falling in many countries, working population is falling. In many countries dropping. It's a negative growth rate. Let's have a look at the working age group Tourism. In 1985, only two countries did the working age population have a negative growth. In 1942 countries have a negative. It's not slowing down, it's minus, it's contracting.
Ruchir Sharma: Contracting. So, in 1985 those two countries were, I think Afghanistan, Somalia basically. Who cares, right. And now you have an industry. How's it going? Countries include China, Japan, Italy, Germany, negative Russia contracting the working age population. So, I think that this is a huge change that's taking place. It's something we still haven't quite appreciated, opposite of the demographic dividend or the demographic boom or if you remember, the population bomb. That was the big worry of development economics in the 70s and 80s. And he was a bomb. Then the dividend. And now, man, you have to bear population by the population bomb.
NDTV: So, based on that, as you were just saying, with a slowing growth rate in working age population. Is it fair to expect an economy like India to grow 70, 8, 9% like China used to? According to Ruchir, that's, just that has to change. You cannot expect that kind of growth rate anymore because of a smaller growth in working age population. Let's look at what the new benchmark should be. These are new benchmarks for economic success. If you achieve these, you're doing well-meant. Fewer workers will actually mean slower economic growth, as you just mentioned. So, for low income countries, expect something around 5% as a successful growth rate. While there's no longer 8 9%, it's double digits, it's 5. And be happy. Middle income countries 3 to 4% is very good and high-income country, developed countries 1 to 2%. And you're happy because you got negative there. A lot of the countries you mentioned were, whether it's shrinking, were developed countries.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. So if you go back to a decade ago, the number of countries in the world which were able to grow at above 7%, of which were growing at about 7%, there were about 40 such countries in the world which were registering a growth rate of above 7%, 40, right. In 2019, there were only eight to nine countries in the world which registered a growth rate of more than 7% of the 190 countries for which data is tracked. 8 to 9, 8 to 9 copy to more than 40, which were there in a decade ago. So massive crunch of data, those eight to nine. Most of the small African countries. But even I don't know how much of trusted data, but whatever it is like very small. So, it's become extremely difficult in this environment to grow at a rate of more than 7%. And yet we keep thinking our benchmark for economic success needs to be 8 to 7%, 8 to 9% growth. And we sort of make all sorts of projections of five trillion dollars economy based on these kinds of projections. But that is just unrealistic. Is my feeling about this now if India truly gets back to a growth rate of about 5 percent. The problem with the data quality, we don't know what the true growth rate as yet is advising the US concern.
NDTV: There is genuinely global worries about Indian data quality, but they never used to be. You know, we have a lot of them, but Bengalis isn't a damn good statistics man.
Ruchir Sharma: But the government itself is now acknowledging that they've set up a committee. I think to look at the whole point that
NDTV: What is this global worry about?
Ruchir Sharma: Like in terms of the fact that people do question because it's such a big disconnect between the real time indicators you get and also what the headline GDP numbers are.
Ruchir Sharma: So, most important point here is that if India can genuinely get back to a growth rate of 5% or more, not based on today's data, but the corrected data, I think that will be a fairly good achievement. But we are still some distance away from that.
NDTV: As you put it, that India's economic growth, the rank globally is dropping badly. That's a big worry for us. Just have a look at this. Economic growth in those terms. India's rank around globe around the world is dropping sharply. Here's India's ranked. just have a look, 2010. India was the 14th best of fastest growing country in the world. 2019 India's forty fourth best. And that's if you take the data as authentic and genuine at 5%.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes
NDTV: or 4.9. If it's actually 2% less than that, we'll be 80th or 90th.
Ruchir Sharma: Right. Ja. So, I think that for 2014 to qualify as a shocker, that the growth rates have come off so much and so have our rankings
NDTV: And growth rate has come out without taking into account correct data.
Ruchir Sharma: Right.
NDTV: Even with this worrying data, it's still come down from 14 to 44, That is a shocker. So, let's have a look at the fifth of the 10 top 10 trends globally for the 2020s. This is what it looks like. Number five. Deep population marches on, talking particularly about the working age population. So, expect a world with a slower growth to change your benchmarks, shift your mind. Forget 9 to10% now go back to 5 for poorer countries.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, that's right. 2% in terms of the average growth rate. But at 2%, less economic growth. The US looks like the best in the class. Which are the developed countries with an unemployment rate which is at 50-year lows?
NDTV: And I must say, U.S. has a huge base due to send means.
Ruchir Sharma: But even the U.S. inefficient until 5 years ago, a 2% growth rate was considered very disappointing. So, this is the new reality, which they seem to have adapted to much more now.
NDTV: Don't you have to say that we have to pivot to a new normal? Isn't that the phrase used in their narrative?
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, that's right.
NDTV: Pivot to a new normal?
Ruchir Sharma: Yes.
NDTV: See it, you know, be a millennial size. So, I think that. Let's move on to number six very quickly before what side tracks us. A new generation rises. This is, you know, Ruchir's generation. And that is causing a marked change in the kind of consumer spending. And this is fascinating how things are going to change because of a new generation, the Gen Z, which is under 21 years now. Two billion of them globally. As far as the millennials are concerned, these are 22 to 37-year olds, almost 2 billion, 1.9 billion, so between them. Huge proportion of the world is now dominated by these younger people. Moving on to Gen X, which is 38 to 53 years, 1.5 million, and then to move on to the baby boomers. You know, the best people of the 60s, 1.1 billion and then which is a standard dumb, the silent generation is 0.3 percent, 3 billion or 0.3 billion, so that is the silent. Which I think is an age, is dumb and you should never use it. Regardless what others do, however …
Ruchir Sharma: This is not my turn.
NDTV: … it doesn't really give us the basic point that these data shows.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. So, I think what this data is basically showing is the fact that we're seeing this big shift in consumer trends, which is happening on the back of this and something which I think would define the coming decade. You'll be seeing that like one thing that I hear so much from is that there's a big demand increase in experiences rather than owning goods. Now that people would rather spend on experiences rather than buying, rather than materialism. I think that this is a big shift that's taking place.
Ruchir Sharma: And we will see some of the trends now on the back of that site.
NDTV: So, one of the things that we hear all the time is that people want to take google. Why buy a car, which used to be the main thing that everybody won't buy a car? But urban now and you can use Air BnB instead of renting a hotel. So, tastes are changing because of also new technologies and new …
Ruchir Sharma: New technologies and also sort of new consumer habits in the way that the younger people are in the way that they their desires. We'll see this throughout the show that in terms of what they want, I think that is shifting and redefining consumer trends.
NDTV: I'm going to note, just go back to really objecting to not your terms, silent generations over seventy two or something. How many of your top three or four presidential candidates for the Democratic Party are over 70?
Ruchir Sharma: Well, even Trump is.
NDTV: So even Trump is, Biden. Bloomberg, 78. Yes. Not too. They're not silent, man. They may move us and shake. We'll change that to move as a check. OK. Now, fascinatingly, what Ruchir's find is that because of this new generation, their new favourite pastimes, let's have a look at this. The world has a new favourite pastime, and this is the new generation impact gaming is now the biggest look at the global market size of gaming. Compared to music, which is $17 billion. Films $80 billion and gaming hundred and thirty eight billion dollars. Now everybody knows, you see kids, you get, you know, playing games all the time, but bigger than music and films combined. That is a shocker.
Ruchir Sharma: Right. And I think it's also got to do with the fact that this is not the result of much better technology. All right. Whether it's got to do with phone penetration or the Internet penetration and also the quality or what's coming out campaigning. And this is the big transformation that the music and films, you can argue how much the quality has improved, the consumption of these. The quality has improved in terms of what you see, the technology like static. But in gaming that the improvement has been incredible. Compare the games that we used to play 30 years ago to the games that we're playing today. So, I think that, but this really is something which is so underappreciated. This now is the world's new favourite pastime, that amount of money people are spending on gaming, even though only about one in three people in the world today still are onto gaming.
NDTV: I mean, this silent don't game.
Ruchir Sharma: That's your terms of what they do. It is still the fact that it is dwarfing now.
NDTV: Yes. On the other, it doesn't mean that just came as a real eye opener to me. And if you look at how much people are actually spending, as Ruchir mentions, just look at the data on this. More money is being spent on gaming than any of the other pastimes, more common pastimes. Revenue per user per year for Twitter is about $8 dollars per user. Facebook $19. Google $27 per user. And look at Fortnight, which is a game, $96. That is like mind blowing. And what the one thing I think you also mention is that if people are playing games, how are you going to improve productivity?
Ruchir Sharma: So this came back to the earlier point which we had. You ask me that what's happening to productivity? Is this about other things I think economists are looking at which is the so-called productivity paradox, but why are we not seeing a bigger increase in productivity, given the fact that have technology everywhere around us, which should be productivity enhancing? And this is partly the answer, that if you're spending more of the productivity or slowing down technology on building better games and the consumer habits are shifting, that's unlikely to increase productivity, even though your experience is likely to get better.
NDTV: Yes, I mean, like it's such a big distraction, but that's it's not only technology is what people love, they love it. And look at it's happening in India as well. Huge change in the number of gaming companies. The gaming boom in India. Just have a look. The rising number of game development companies, India in 2000. Then there were 25. Now to 75 companies are making gaming apps.
Ruchir Sharma: Yet this sort of industry is going at, you know, 20% or more every year. So, you want to secular growth industry. Gaming is where you're seeing this.
NDTV: And interestingly, in India, the number of games downloaded is highest in the world number. And there's so many different people are trying all kinds of games. Just have a look at the number of games downloaded. So, part of the gaming boom and India's number of games downloaded, India is highest in the world, as we just mentioned, 58 games are downloaded in India, USA 53, China 30. That came as a low surprise to me and say another country, Turkey 21. So, India three times Turkey, double China.
Ruchir Sharma: This is what happened in a previous calendar year. So just in one year, the number of games that were downloaded. Apps …
Ruchir Sharma: … as you can see, India tops that chart as well.
NDTV: Wow. Real shock. I mean, you do know it. You've seen people using it. But these kinds of figures are just …
Ruchir Sharma: India, talentless. They weren't truly, has a new favourite pastime.
NDTV: So, what is top trend number six out of the ten top trends for the 2020s? Number six shows that the new generation simply equals new consumption habits. In fact, amongst that, gaming surges ahead of films and music. That is a huge change. Does it worry you?
Ruchir Sharma: Well, I think we all have to, as you said, pivot to this to the new normal in the narrative, to this new trend. And I think that that the opportunity is there, which is that the amount of mind space going on, gaming, the monetization is still not taking place pretty much like the Internet. If you remember like a decade ago. Richtig. That that's where the attention is moving.
NDTV: Wow, let's move on to number seven doctrine out of the ten top trends for the next decade. And this is about populism. In the past 2010s, the decade just gone by, populism, search the populism of the left or the right. The votes of populist parties rule sharply, both left and right. Just have a look at it. Look at that graph over the years. There was an increase in the 1940s just before the war, and then it's been flat. And then suddenly 2018, the number of populist parties that are getting support left and right, but probably more to the right in terms of support, has gone up very sharply. Yes, it's a big change.
Ruchir Sharma: Right. And this is sort of happened all of the last decade. More importantly, it is what? What's the impact of this? Richtig. That even if it peaks, it'll take a long time for things to normalize, as you're going to see. So, I think that the impact that this is having on societies on so many economic and political trends. That's what I find even more significantly interesting.
NDTV: And I think the next bit of data shows the different being left and right in this populist populism search. Richtig. This would which Ruchir defines as increasing polarization in the world. The world is divided like never before. Polarization is deepening now. Just look at the percentage support that any president in America has got from the opposition's base. Meaning if you're a Democrat president, how many Republicans support you? And if you're a Republican president, how many Democrats supported you? Kennedy, who was a Democrat, 49% of Republicans ranked him favourably. If you look at Nixon, 34% of Democrats ranked him favourably, even though he was a Republican. Look at Reagan. 31% of Democrats looked at him favourably. Look at Clinton down to 27. So, it's going 49, 30, going down. Clinton 27% of Republicans looked at Clinton favourably. Look at Obama. People forget Republicans could not stand him 14%. Only 14% of Republicans looked at, ranked him favourably. And look at Trump now. Down to 6% of Democrats rank Trump favourably. That is a terrific trend downwards polarization. If you're Democrat, will not look at a Republican. If I'm a Republican, I will not look at the Democrat. A divided country
Ruchir Sharma: For the US. We have this great data, but I suspect this is exactly the trend worldwide, possibly like in India as well. Richtig. That that it's become such an ossification of the voter bases that it is so difficult to sort of get any crossover now. Richtig. And that's why even calling elections has become so difficult. Including in the United States that the favourite question that anybody asks today is who is going to win the election in November in the US? And I think the betting market sort of has it right. It's, say this 50/50. If you look at the betting market, right, there's a margin like you say, if anyone else who always said that anything good at anything could happen.
NDTV: Bengali genes it …
Ruchir Sharma: But in terms of if you look at it here, which is that in America too, the polarization is such that just the five battleground states in America are going to determine what's going to happen in the election.
NDTV: And the rest are totally polar?
Ruchir Sharma: And the rest have already decided.
NDTV: My God
Ruchir Sharma: If you do a door of America to figure out what's going to happen in the elections
NDTV: Just go to those states.
Ruchir Sharma: Just go to the other end to five and they're relatively small states and ten to twenty thousand people, which way they switch in those four to five states is likely to determine the entire electoral outcome. So good luck to pollsters to find out who those …
NDTV: Let's have a look at exactly what you're saying. In your next bit of data, you found that increased polarization of the society, a divided society, has actually also meant hardcore support increasing, and therefore less volatility in your support base. Look at, for example, Trump's rating. A lower than historically presidents have had, much lower, but they're stable. Historically, the support pattern for former presidents used to be up and down, all over the place, but for Trump, much lower than that, but more or less flat. People are not, Republicans are not switching to Democrats. Democrats are not switching to Republicans. Easy for pollsters.
Ruchir Sharma: But see what this is so significant that for other presidents, including Obama and …
NDTV: Presidents is a pun, right …
Ruchir Sharma: Right. Earlier in terms of the fact that it's a, that this swing in terms of the low approval rating and a high approval rating during their term would be about 30%. When they were doing well, 60% approval ratings, when they are doing poorly, about 30% or so. That's roughly what the …
NDTV: Huge change. As people swung back and forth.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. Swung back and forth. Less and less so. But it still swung back and forth. In Trump's case, his approval rating has literally moved in a range of plus minus two, three points of 40%.
NDTV: Can you imagine
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. So, no matter what's happening, you get impeachment trials or you get the entire farce which takes place or what's happening on the border. Anything can happen, and the approval rating moves by just 2 or 3%. It's as good a dead man's heartbeat, this graph
NDTV: Amazing, actually. And based on that, the summary of point number seven, the trend number 7 out of the 10 trends is as follows. Here it is, trend number 7. The world is divided like never before, but this polarization, likely to have peaked.
Ruchir Sharma: That data tells you that, which is that how much worse can polarization get here. Only 6% of Democrats are going to back a Republican president, and all 91% of Republicans are going to just back whoever's their president.
Ruchir Sharma: How much can this rubber band stretch more? The spread is already down to just six points. And so, I just feel that we could be at a stage where we see some move again towards rationality and centrism. But maybe that's an optimistic take. There's no sign of it so far. But it just seems that …
NDTV: Right. But they may actually develop some common ground, as people say, look, what are we fighting about in such extreme measures?
Ruchir Sharma: And so little gets achieved then. When you sort of have that because you know that both sides are going to attack each other, or if they come to power, they're going to reverse each other's policies.
NDTV: I just want to add, do you think a lot of this polarization is based on the most emotive emotion of hatred?
Ruchir Sharma: It could be that in terms of it. But, you know, it's been progressing for the last 50 years. So, I would like to believe there's one factor behind it. But I think this is something which we still haven't understood and of course, people …
NDTV: But you know, you see a big drop in Obama and the increasing drop in Trump and Trump is, a lot of it is based on hatred of immigrants, of different, not true Americans, etc. And you see that in India as well.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes.
NDTV: So, this polarisation, hatred helps polarization?
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. Yes, I think so. It's much more tribal loyalties possibly built first by television, then by social media.
NDTV: By television? OK.
Ruchir Sharma: So these are just factors that we can try and guess as to what's leading.
NDTV: It's not television. That's all gaming. Gaming by politicians of a different game. OK. Let's move on to our more financial things now, interest rates and inflation, etc. Let's have a look at what kind of interest rates one can expect based on the past. In 2010's, the last decade, we've seen the lowest interest rates in 800 years. These are real interest rates adjusted for inflation, which is the right thing to do. But that's amazing. So, if you look at real interest rates, just look at that, they're really at the negative right now. Sharma, there was one little, yes, short term interest rate, the one little equivalent in 1965. But at the moment, nothing like in the 800 years.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, some money to those who can sort of access it, is extremely cheap and widely available. And that's also one reason why financial assets around the world have done so well, especially stocks, including in places like India, which is that even if the fundamentals haven't looked that great, people with such low interest rates feel compelled to sort of invest in assets such as stocks because they don't get much in the …
NDTV: In the bank, the bonds, or whatever.
Ruchir Sharma: … in the bank. Richtig. In terms of because if you adjust for inflation, you know, the return of the bank accounts basically is close to zero. So, or negative in many countries. So that's what's sort of leading to financial assets doing so well. And also, I think to the fact that we have this period where money is so easily available to those who can access it.
NDTV: Right. And that translates into inflation. And if you have a look at inflation globally, at least look at it, inflation in India and how it has changed over 10 years, low inflation India globally, it has been, and in India. But how it has changed is important. India's inflation is still high compared to global levels. Just have a look at this. Ten years ago, India was one 161 out of 190 countries in terms of inflation. Really bad inflation. And now it's still at 145. I mean there are 144 countries, 144 countries ahead of us with lower inflation than India. So that is a very, not even halfway mark.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. But I think that this tells you two points. One, that inflation across the world has collapsed because India's inflation rate, when its ranking was 160 was 9 to 10%. Now India's inflation rate is closer to 5%. The headline inflation rate. And yet our ranking hasn't improved that much. Because globally, inflation has completely collapsed. So, this is what this tells you now.
NDTV: But it also tells you that even though you've gone down to 5%, don't be all thrilled about it, because globally it's even better.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. That's right. Ja.
NDTV: Okay. Let's move on to what's going to happen in the 2020s. This is what Ruchir, based on analysis of the part, inflation may come back. Now to what extent? We'll discuss in a minute. But here are the signs. Number one, global unemployment rate at very low right now, leading, pushing for higher wages. Next, if you look at productivity growth, as you mentioned, people are gaming, what do you expect anyway? Productivity is low growth for various reasons. And the global government debt was something you've been stressing a lot over the last decade, in fact, is at its all-time high of 90% of GDP. That's just government. Not all total debt in the country. 90% of GDP, that's unprecedented.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. The only time when governments, including the United States, have had such high debt levels or run such large budget deficits in normal peace times is, or rather that never in peacetime it's basically been when they've had a war or something. But this is possibly the most controversial forecast, I would say, of all the 10 that we are going to discuss today. Because there is no evidence of inflation in the world today.
NDTV: Yes. That's when you make forecasts. Not after it's over.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. So, there's no evidence of it.
NDTV: Good for you.
Ruchir Sharma: And a lot of people will be sort of seeing that. So many economists have been calling for high inflation on the back of a low interest rate, and it just hasn't transpired. So why should it happen now? Is going to be the sceptical calling for that. And my feeling is the fact that that because now you have such a resources constraint which is building up, that you could finally begin to see some inflation break out. And when that does happen, it'll be a huge event because people are so used to inflation rates only falling. So, this is a very important and yet possibly the most controversial of the day for us
NDTV: Well for us it's not controversial. Anybody says, why do you think inflation's going up, is not going up? We'll just say, Ruchir says so, simple as that. So, in a nutshell, what is this? Eight out of the 10 points. Number 8 of the top trends of the 2020s. Inflation may stage a comeback. And that affects behaviour a lot, and what you should think of doing, invasion investing, etc.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. Because gold, for example, could be the big winner in that environment …
NDTV: … sort of scenario. Interessant. Gold could be important. Okay, let's move on to the second last one. Number 9 of the top 10 trends of the 2020s. Number 9, where we're going to talk about the falling fourth estate. Fourth estate, of course, is newspapers and television. And people are getting news less than and less from newspapers and television, except on this show, this everybody gets, but other channels they don't get. Okay. Got it. Why don't you write that clearly? So, the percentage you get news from. One of is …
Ruchir Sharma: TV, and one is print.
NDTV: So, the top one is, I think, TV. The percentage who get news from television has dropped from around 80% to around 50% of the people, and print from around 50% to just 15% now in the last 20 years. That's a huge decline. A huge change.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. So, this is, you know, like, I think this trend is well understood that we're seeing the decline of the traditional media, but that it just continues unrelenting. It's accelerating. I think that is something which, you know, we will keep on, have to adjust our business models to. So, this is what's really going on. And again, the important implication of this is that it's giving way to what Mark Zuckerberg, of all people, calls obviously the rise of the fifth estate. Which is that you've seen such a big …
Ruchir Sharma: … yes, online, social media. And he calls it the fifth estate because there's such decentralization now of news dissemination that it no longer now is about who controls it. Anybody with a Twitter account becomes an opinion person. Anybody on Facebook and Instagram is able to sort of communicate and visualize what they feel.
NDTV: A huge democratization of spreading of news, like if you're good. And we have so many, even in India, there are individuals are doing so well, Dhruv Rathee for example.
Ruchir Sharma: That's right.
NDTV: Amazing. Now, so the rise of the fifth estate, just have a look at that. Fifth estate meaning online news. You're getting your news from online sources. This is what it looks like. In USA, percentage who get their news online used to be 12%, it's now 52% getting their news online predominantly.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. And the same trend is happening across the world as we see in emerging markets too such as India that we are seeing a much greater increase now in peoples who are …
NDTV: Let's have a look at India. This is the data that Ruchir has researched and found about India. What percentage are now getting news online versus newspapers and television? Young India in particular gets their news online. Percentage of Indians under 35 years of age who get their news online rather than television and radio 56%. And look at it for print, 16%. People are now, youngsters are now reading newspapers and television 26%. Now, I want to make a very strong statement here. NDTV is a Fifth Estate organisation. We are moving completely digital. We have been doing for the last year or two years and dot com, you're right, is growing rapidly with 200 million unique users. Sorry, a little bit of advertising, but I'm just saying we are just part of the Indian trend.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, that's right. And I think that this is something which is going to accelerate with the generational change as we spoke about it. That really is the common theme of the top trends, which is that the generational trends as to how they're shifting and shaping consumer habits.
NDTV: And Twitter, in particular, you've focused on for a while. And look at how Twitter, Twitter users, how many of them actually use Twitter to get news is amazing and how it's rising. It's a rising source of news, Twitter. The percentage of users, Twitter users who get their news from Twitter 52% in 2013, just six or seven years ago. 59% in 2016. And in 2017, 74% saw it. And in 2018, 71%. That is amazing that Twitter is predominantly now being used for news.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. That is the people getting the news primarily from Twitter in fact. So, I think that this is something …
NDTV: I mean, they go to Twitter for news, not really for chatting with others or finding gossip news, right?
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. No, I think that you would see that even amongst all fellow journalists and stuff that that's become the main source of news.
NDTV: And fellow presidents like President Trump, he's transformed Twitter for news or non-news or alternative facts.
Ruchir Sharma: Alt news.
NDTV: Alt News. Ja. So now let's have a look at the ninth in the top ten trends of the 2020s. The fifth estate that's online rules in the 2020s. That is a big change. And amongst that, gaming again. You know, it's part of that same kind of phenomenon. More democratization, more worrying. There are worrying aspects to it, of course, of curation. Would you say curation is becoming, coming back off it?
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, I think that …
NDTV: Curation, meaning people, explain what you mean by curation.
Ruchir Sharma: Right. So, what we've seen over the past decade is proliferation. So much of data, so much of news know which is hitting you. I think that we see a trend now of much more of curation where people are, and this is being facilitated by artificial intelligence, AI and stuff that people now sort of want to be told what exactly to read, how to curate stuff. I think that the trend is taking place and we're seeing a lot of tech development take place towards that because it is so much data around the world. In fact, the bulk of that has happened the last couple of years. So, I think that this is the new trend now on curation.
NDTV: Right. Let's move on the tenth and final and then to a quick overview of all ten. But the tenth and final is a fascinating one. The amount of inequality in the world and in India kept rising in 2010 and this last past decade. Just look at some of the figures, the number of billionaires as an indicator. This global went up from 2,011 in 2010 to 2,153. More than double the number of dollar millionaires we're talking about. Ja. And if we just quickly look at India, it's, of course, then smaller because it's only one country across the globe. But the increased percentage is about the same, more or less doubled in India, the number of age of billion. It's the age of billionaires in India too. The number of billionaires in India have gone up from 49 in 2010, up to 106, so also doubled. This kind of trend indicates greater inequality. Few people are making …
Ruchir Sharma: This is one way of looking at it. There's so much controversy regarding the inequality data. How do you measure it real like? Have you included income transfers? And I included that symbol then? Ja. So, in terms of what you this is just telling you. Yes, I think that it's also more than whether inequality is rising in order, by how much is right. It's also the perception. Ja. I think this entire perception is there. About the top 0.1% of the world is sort of dominating. Richtig. And they're taking a disproportionate share of the wealth. And this is what this data is.
NDTV: Right. And you say because of this, I mean, everybody's focused on these few billionaires around the world. And there's a bit of a backlash. So, let's look at the backlash that Ruchir is talking about. It's building. Around the world there's increasing demands for more equality in our society, financial and wealth, equality and indications one. You see politicians around the world are bashing millionaires and by name.
Ruchir Sharma: And we've seen this in the US too. It's a very funny situation that you have a billionaire entering the Democrat field but not gaining much traction. And you also obviously have Trump who is a billionaire, but on the other hand, this the left, the left wing of the Democrat Party is actually naming billionaires now in terms of. And that would not happen before. So, this is, I think, very kind of, yes …
NDTV: That is the leader that the, you know, identifying and wanting something done. And apart from that, there's pressure on them for increasing expenditure on new health, on increasing taxes, free college, going to college, no more fees and free healthcare. A lot of pressure on those as well.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. I think that we're seeing a shift now much more towards redistribution, of course, in America. They call it a shift away from Wall Street to Main Street. But I think that we are seeing this sort of thing now so people can call this populism. Some can call these whatever policies you want. But the pressure is clearly building that something needs to be done to redistribute some of the wealth, rather than just to create it.
NDTV: I just read that line again. There's a misprint this in. No, sorry. We'll go back. No, no, no. It's wealth, not health. The increasing calls for new wealth tax, yes. For free college and for healthcare. And then you can take Groucho's after that. And then the third point that you mentioned, Ruchir, is that millennials are focused on promoting socially and environmentally sustainable investing. Millennials and generations, they're very worried about the environment and all this backlash. They want much more billionaires and corporates to dig much more, pay much more attention to social projects. Right?
Ruchir Sharma: And something that we see in the financial industry as well, which is that these funds are being launched now, which are targeted towards this. So, the strongest growth we are seeing now are in funds which are like in India. They call it, you know, CSR or right in the corporate social responsibility. And in the US, it's called Tuckwell ESG sort of Fino or social impacting fund. So, I think we're seeing this trend. We want investment in areas which have social good?
NDTV: Yes, social good or they want the companies that you're investing in, right, to be screened for those. But how good are they on those on those scores? And if they're not good, how much you're engaging with them to try and bring about change? You know, when I was travelling a lot around California and the Silicon Valley, one of the things and I felt very proud everybody was talking about. Indians are now making great CEOs. Why? Because they have both a head and a heart, and the new trend globally is that you must not just be whatever it takes, I'm going to win. You must also have a social message, a heart. You must look at all the aspects, other aspects of developing an organization. And Indians have a head and a heart just like you.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, that's great to hear that.
NDTV: Yes. And Satya Nadella and Pichai. They've proved they've got a heart They are very sensitive and they've done so well as a result. And that's even at smaller levels. Indians are becoming CEOs.
Ruchir Sharma: Right.
NDTV: I want to ask you which job, which CEO you're going to be, of some social organization?
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, definitely.
NDTV: Okay. In terms of the next aspect of this pressure, or the backlash against inequality and pure capitalism. You call it moral capitalism. The 2020s Ruchir says, you're going to see a rise, or the pressure on more moral capitalism, in capitalism with morals. The percentage actually, if you look at people who want corporates to work for social change. And this is what it looks like. Global average, 73% percent are saying we want not just pure profits, think about society. And in US it's about 74%. In India, it's 81%. Of course, we're a poor country. Poverty is very visible. So, you want people to effect that poverty and change. And I think one of the few countries that's higher than India is Mexico, that 87% want investment in social change.
Ruchir Sharma: And this is not just to do with absolute numbers. It's the trend, that every year we see that this number is going up. So, you know, by about 8 to 10%. So, the same snapshot from five years ago would have shown the numbers to be closer to 50, 60%. Now it's going to 73%. It's almost becoming the norm now, that you have to do both. It's not one or the other.
NDTV: I'm going to say something which is absolutely based on no data. When we were young, the boomers, we had a lot of social objectives, demonstrations. Then it seemed to die away with your generation. And now the Gen Z and the Millennials are bringing it back a little bit. Maybe not so much the millennials, but the Gen Z, the really younger lot seem to be more involved in society and saying not just pure capitalism. Based on hard data by the way …
Ruchir Sharma: No, but it's backed up by this data too, that consistent trend that we are seeing here is this.
NDTV: Because more and more youngsters are coming in also …
Ruchir Sharma: That's right. So, you know like why is this happening, the push is coming from them?
NDTV: We had a gap generation. Instead of calling you guys the Gen whatever it was.
Ruchir Sharma: Gen X.
NDTV: Gen X. You're the gap generation. Not the, there's a silent, the gap. Two socially conscious generations on either side. Shocking. So, let's, if you could now just summarize quickly. All ten.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. So, I think ….
NDTV: Sorry, sorry, sorry. We just need to, in summary what you're saying is going to happen in the next 10 years is you're going to see more, the rise of moral capitalism. That's what you're saying. Moral capitalism. By that you mean capitalism with a social conscience.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, yes.
NDTV: And you're seeing that happening and that's going to get serious
Ruchir Sharma: I feel like I've already been serious and now I think it's going to mushroom as things develop this decade.
NDTV: Right. A good area to think, if you're going to invest, it's both good for society and good for returns. I mean, it's that double whammy you get.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, yes, yes. Double benefit
NDTV: Actually, a lot of, even in the Valley. Any new projects, start-ups, they like to see an idea that has both a social impact and a profit in it. It used to be just profits.
Ruchir Sharma: Usually just profit and it's particularly strong in Europe. It's the strongest from there. When I travel the world, I think in Europe, you see the maximum demand that even of pension funds and other institutions, they are actually asking their investors, how much are you doing on this front?
NDTV: Right. Got it. OK. Let's very quickly go through all 10 and then. I won't say what we'll do after this. We'll have a nimbu paani, okay. The top 10 trends of the 2020s. Here's Ruchir's number 1. Ruchir, America will peak. The rest of the world will rise. The American economy has done brilliantly. 2010 to 2020, 2019.And now it's going to peak.
Ruchir Sharma: Right. This is, again, a forecast. It's hard to know if it's going to happen in 2021 or 2022. I think that if history is any guide, right, once a country does so well in an economic perspective, and even more so from a financial perspective, the subsequent decade tends to be disappointing at least. So, it's not as if that's the end of America. But maybe even a pause to refresh. And the other economies which have gone through such a tough period over the last decade, cleaning up the mess partly because of the boom of the 2000s, those will stand a better chance of re-emerging,
NDTV: Re-emerging, point number 2, let's have a look. The second. Sorry, what happened, okay, point number two, the second trend of the Top 10 Trends of the 2020s is that smaller companies may be beautiful again. Explain why and what to expect in that.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. As we saw from the data here, which is that churn is the norm. So, we're likely to see new winners emerge in the Top 10. But more importantly, I think the fundamental conditions are coming in place where some of the smaller companies may do better, partly because of the other trends that we discussed, whether it was localization, de-globalization, rise of nationalism. The environment is shifting in general towards smaller companies doing better after they have done so poorly.
NDTV: Yes, because they always used to do as well, but they have had a bad patch. So, you think they could go back to the norm?
Ruchir Sharma: Yes
NDTV: They'll pivot to the …
Ruchir Sharma: Pivot to the trend line.
NDTV: Correct. OK. Point number 3, if you look at the third trend out of the Top 10 Trends, big days of big tech are over. We are sorry. The best days of big tech companies are over. By that you mean the big tech companies have done so well in this decade and you've seen companies, Top 10, don't replicate in the next decade. So, these Top 10 could be they're vulnerable?
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, vulnerable in terms of the fact that they'll be around, but their returns will be disappointing. And that's what we saw after the 99-2000 tech boom as well, that the 7 of the 10 largest companies in the world then were tech companies, like the case today.
Ruchir Sharma: But of the 7 of those 10, only one was able to survive in the Top 10 for a long period of time. And every other company faded. And not just faded, faded quite sharply after that.
NDTV: Amazing, actually. Okay, number 4, point number 4, trend number 4 out of the Top 10 trends of the 2020s. Here it is. De-globalization will make way for localization. And you've already seen slight indications that that trend is going to continue?
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, I think it's just started. So, we're seeing that the market share, the market share gains are a lot. Now, once again, these are forecast based on what we're seeing at a fundamental level. And it links into the other trends that you have, de-globalization, you have more nationalism, you are likely to see much greater protectionism as well, which helps local companies rather than global brands.
NDTV: Right. They're all linked in that sense.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes.
NDTV: Okay, now trend number 5 out of the Top 10 Trends is as follows. It says that slower growth rate; new norm is going to be slower growth rate targets because of a decline, or a decline in the growth rate of the working population, either a negative or a slower growth of the working population. The working population going to not grow as fast and productivity is not going to compensate. So, don't expect the 8, 9% if you're 5, genuine 5, not fiddled 5, genuine 5 for a poor country, you should be happy.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. For emerging markets, the new definition of economic success, I say 5% economic growth. For a middle-income country, if you get to about 3 to 4. That's what I say in China when I go there: That listen, 6% is not going to be achievable anymore. You get more than 3 to 4% economic growth, that's very good. And the United States and even more in Europe, you do 1 to 2% even. That's great. And there's one point I'll make here, that per capita income becomes a more important measure of success now, rather than just GDP growth rate. And this is very true in Japan. Here's a fascinating statistic that I'll leave you with at this point; that in per capita income terms, which is in terms of not just GDP growth, but in per capita terms, US, Japan and Europe have grown at roughly the same pace over the last 20 years. So, it's basically the American Advantage.
NDTV: And people feel per capita.
Ruchir Sharma: That's right. And the American Advantage has a lot to do with superior demographics. And in Japan, despite virtually no headline economic growth, why there's been no social unrest? Why there's not been greater angst? Partly because in per capita terms, it's still doing okay.
NDTV: It's also one of the greatest countries in the world, Japan. Anyway, let's look at point number 6. Trend number 6 in the Top 10 trends of the 2020s. New generation that's coming up will determine new consumption patterns and one of the things which is mind blowing is gaming, as opposed to films …
Ruchir Sharma: And that's the world's new favourite pastime as we say
NDTV: Amazing, but much more than that …
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, but that's a common theme that as you can see in our Top 10 trends, which is that the rise of the new generation, the millennials, the Gen Z, I think that they are redefining many consumption patterns. They want more experiences rather than owning goods and other items. And also in terms of how they're spending their time. I think that they're reshaping these patterns and as we see how they're consuming news. So, this is another big common trend, whether it's de-globalization rise of the millennials, de-population. These are themes which I think pervade all adopting trends.
NDTV: So, they're looking at NDTV.com rather than just NDTV,
Ruchir Sharma: Much more
NDTV: Much more. Richtig. And we're Millennial, Gen Z
Ruchir Sharma: driven company …
NDTV: … driven company. I wish. Okay, point number 7. The world has never been more divided, polarized. But polarization cannot get worse. It's so bad right now. So, you see some improvement?
Ruchir Sharma: I'm hoping so because how much can you stretch a rubber band? It's already at an extreme. When you have a very, have a situation where 90% of the Republicans will support Trump regardless of what he does and 6% of only Democrats will support him, no matter how the economy is doing, it just tells you, you know that, how much worse can it get from here. So, I'm hoping at least that there is mean reversion here. But so far, it's polarization at its extreme.
NDTV: Now point number 8. Inflation may stage a come-back, inflation may come back. It's been a good decade for low inflation, but now it may stage a come-back.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes, because inflation's been trending down really since the early 80s across the world.
NDTV: Right. But you've seen a lot of signs that …
Ruchir Sharma: There's some signs that this may eventually come back, just when everyone has given up on it. And often trends shift when everyone has given up on it. This is the forecast which is likely to be met with more scepticism, and the most controversial one, but a safe bet I would say is to have some gold in your savings, right? In terms of how? In your portfolio. Because if gold, if inflation does stage a come-back, then gold tends to do quite well in that kind of an environment.
NDTV: Number 9, the Fifth Estate, that is tech is going to rule the 2020s. But it may not be the same big companies. But it's again the link to the younger generation, Gen Z, the millennials etc.
Ruchir Sharma: Yes. A shift of balance of power. That it's become much more decentralized now and the traditional media is also being forced to adapt itself. But some are doing so quite successfully as well. I don't want to undermine that. I think that if you look at some of the leading publications in the world such as the New York Times, The Washington Post, they've been able to pivot, as we put it, in terms of this sort of new environment. But that's really how things are shifting and you have to adapt to that. But there's one other thing which is coming through here, is also I think that, a somewhat countervailing trend here is about curation. That as you get so much of this …
NDTV: By curation explain exactly what you mean
Ruchir Sharma: You want somebody to filter, not give you all or not by some machines, even as AI, but something which is able to curate for us to select, based on your own habits, right, as to what you are going to lie or what you are going to dislike, rather than sort through the mess yourself
NDTV: Okay, the final of your Top 10. I think it's fascinating, is the rise of moral capitalism. Capitalism with a heart, capitalism with a social conscience. And that's again pressure on politicians to change and billionaires to change.
Ruchir Sharma: Right. And the pressure once again building, both because of the perception about income inequality and wealth inequality, and also because millennials, the younger generation, that's what they care for more, that's what they want companies, they want to focus much more on other goals, rather than just profit. Now of course, it's, you want profit at the end of the day, but you want these other objectives also to be met. So, the pressure is building bottom-up.
NDTV: I will just put it that, it's the return of the wonderful people of the 60s. You had 50 years of gap and the youngsters are back to the youngsters of the 60s. Thank you very much Ruchir. That's absolutely fascinating. For once you've worked hard in your life. Thank you very much.
Ruchir Sharma: Every year. Ja.