Employment report, Middle East tensions – what you should know in the coming week

0
81

[ad_1]

In a busy week, investors will be watching growing tensions in the Middle East and the December job report.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text MB (1.0em) MB (0) – SM MB (0.8em) – SM" type = "text" content = "Last Friday, & nbsp;Shares crashed& nbsp; and oil and gold prices rose after a & nbsp;US drone attack in which a top Iranian general was killed, The Dow fell more than 230 points, and both the Dow and the S&P 500 had the worst day in a month. After the attack, analysts largely expect geopolitical escalation and conflicts in the region. For investors, however, the main question remains how a war between the United States and Iran would affect the economy and markets. "Data – reactid =" 16 "> Last Friday, stocks tumbled and oil and gold prices rose as a result of a US drone strike. Emagazine.credit-suisse.com/app/art … = 157 & lang = de The Dow fell more than 230 points, and both the Dow and the S&P 500 had the worst day in a month. The main question remains how a war between the US and Iran would affect the economy and markets.

"The renewed surge in tensions between the US and Iran has pushed geopolitical risk into the list of concerns in 2020," Capital Economics wrote in a January 3 statement. The economy is likely to be robust even if oil prices rise. "

Iran has announced it will take revenge against the attack, so the market's reaction this week to new developments is being closely monitored.

On May 5, 2017, a sign for hiring a new employee will be placed in front of a McDonalds restaurant in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by Justin Sullivan / Getty Images)

In addition, market watchers will get a boost on the job market on Friday when the job center publishes the final job report of 2019. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe the economy created 166,000 new jobs in December after 266,000 in November.

Even when the GM strike has been disrupting employment in recent months, the noise of the strikes has subsided and will not affect December data, economists argue.

"The strike at GM has worsened employee numbers in recent months, but the underlying trend has been positive," Credit Suisse said in a January 2 announcement that the trend weakened as the economy neared full employment. "

In the meantime, J.P. Morgan economist Daniel Silver warned of significantly unexpectedly low salary increases in December. “We forecast that employment outside of agriculture increased by 125,000 in December. This would be one of the weakest months for employment growth in recent years. However, we believe that this weakness is partly due to seasonal problems and that employment growth will increase in January. "

“The moving four-week average for first-time applications in the last weekly report reached 233,000, the highest level in almost two years. We typically use this metric as a guide to underlying labor market developments, but we believe that the conditions are healthier than implied in the recent claims data, because we believe that claims data is affected by seasonal adjustment issues in the Silver distorted related to the timing of Thanksgiving added.

According to Capital Economics, the US labor market looks quite solid in 2020. "A range of evidence suggests that the job market outlook will remain solid until 2020. After a fall in 2019, the number of temporary workers has recovered, which has been a good early indicator of overall wage growth in recent years," he said the economic research firm outlined in note January 2nd. "The turnaround in both the ISM and Markit total employment index is another clear plus."

<h2 class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "economic Calendar"data-reactid =" 36 ">economic Calendar

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Monday: N / A data reactid = 37>Monday: N / A

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Tuesday: Trade balance, November (- $ 44.5 billion expected, – $ 47.2 billion in October); Factory orders, November (-0.4% expected, 0.1% in October) "data-reactid =" 38 ">Tuesday: Trade balance, November (- $ 44.5 billion expected, – $ 47.2 billion in October); Factory orders, November (-0.4% expected, 0.1% in October)

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Wednesday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, December (54.5 expected, 53.9 in November) "data-reactid =" 39 ">Wednesday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, December (54.5 expected, 53.9 in November)

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Thursday: ADP Private Employment, December (165,000 expected; 67,000 in November); Initial jobless claims, week of January 4th (before 222,000) "data-reactid =" 40 ">Thursday: ADP Private Employment, December (165,000 expected; 67,000 in November); Initial jobless claims, week through January 4 (before 222,000)

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Friday: Change in nonfarm payrolls in December (166,000 expected, 266,000 in November); Unemployment rate, December (3.5% expected, 3.5% in November); Average hourly earnings in a monthly comparison in December (0.3% expected, 0.2% in November); Average hourly wages year-on-year, December (3.1% expected, 3.1% in November) "data-reactid =" 41 ">Friday: Change in nonfarm payrolls in December (166,000 expected, 266,000 in November); Unemployment rate, December (3.5% expected, 3.5% in November); Average hourly earnings in a monthly comparison in December (0.3% expected, 0.2% in November); Average hourly wages yoy, December (3.1% expected, 3.1% November)