Is college basketball losing some of its appeal to sports investors? Well, if you like to see the ball through the hoop, it will certainly be less fun to see.
VSiN addressed this in a game preview a few weeks ago. According to the publicly published data on Ken Pomeroy's market-trusted website (kenpom.com), the efficiency of the offensive has decreased significantly this season. The rating is adapted to the pace. Pomeroy also adjusts the plan thickness. Using this season's midweek points in 100 possessions:
Current leaders from 2019-20: Gonzaga 116.0, Dayton 115.8, Duke 115.2, Iowa 114.9, LSU 114.7.
Final leader 2018-19: Gonzaga 124.5, Virginia 123.4, Tennessee 122.7, Purdue 122.5, Michigan State 121.0.
Final leaders 2017-18: Virginia 127.8, Purdue 122.7, Duke 122.4, Wichita State 121.0, Kansas 120.9.
Gonzaga has maintained "Best in the Country" status last season, but scores 8.5 points less per 100 possessions. If you're worried about a phenomenon that occurs on the top of the ladder and doesn't reflect all of the sport, national centers (in the thickest part of the bell curve) were 104.9 two seasons ago and 104.4 last season, but only at 100.5 in 2019-20. It's like the rims have shrunk.
The most common causes of the current decline:
- The NCAA extends the 3-point distance before the start of the current season. It's harder than before to make Treys.
- An increasing strategic switch from "crashing the boards" in attack to "sending back" to defense when a shot goes up. The teams can improve their overall chances of winning by trading defense against attack. This approach damages their offensive statistics and those of their opponents.
- The long-held increasing impact of youth basketball programs, which emphasize the individual evaluation at the expense of teamwork, which gives the shooters an open face.
Whatever the cause, even the best handicappers and weather deal with what feels like a different sport this season. Here are some tips:
- Don't assume betting on Unders is free. The betting markets are highly developed and have reacted to the new reality relatively quickly, although you may find individual teams that are still misjudged. Locally, St. Johns, Fordham and Marist Under distorted. The AP Top 25 also includes Kansas, Ohio State and Maryland.
- Emphasize the rebound in your statistical handicap. You may “punish” teams with bad rebound differences that have only changed the way they win.
- Bet on lineups with a proven ability to score efficiently, especially as an outsider. Some uploaded favorites may even offer off-season value because so many tournament point spreads are low. Make it your business to investigate offensive execution now for teams that will hinder you by March.
Keep in mind that redeeming tickets is still fun if you don't like college hoops anymore.
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