Market morning special: Franz Ferdinand moment? The Iranian general Soleimani rests in pieces

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<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "This could be a turning point a la the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, a linchpin in the history of the clash of civilizations between East and West? Nobody knows until long after, but the potential is there. The leader of Iran's elite Quds forces, General Qassem Soleimani, was murdered in an American bombing raid on Iraqi Baghdad Airport ordered by President Donald Trump. This follows quarrels at the American embassy in Baghdad, in which a mob burned the entrance to the building and besieged the embassy staff. This itself followed a bombing by American troops that killed Iranian fighters in Iraq. Iran had previously mocked US President Donald Trump and said he could do nothing about the siege of the embassy, ​​whereupon Trump murdered one of the senior officers in the Iranian military and rounded it off by tweeting a picture with the American flag. "-reactid =" 11 "> Could this be a turning point a la the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, a linchpin in the history of the clash of civilizations between East and West? Nobody knows until long after, but the potential is there. The leader of Iran's elite Quds forces, General Qassem Soleimani, was murdered in an American bombing raid on Iraqi Baghdad Airport ordered by President Donald Trump. This follows quarrels at the American embassy in Baghdad, in which a mob burned the entrance to the building and besieged the embassy staff. This itself followed a bombing by American troops that killed Iranian fighters in Iraq. Iran had previously mocked US President Donald Trump and said he could do nothing about the siege of the embassy, ​​whereupon Trump murdered one of the senior officers in the Iranian military and rounded it off by tweeting a picture with the American flag.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "First the markets that react as expected for this type of Event. Safe harbors including gold (NYSEARCA: GLD), long-term government bonds (NYSEARCA: TLT) and the US dollar index (NYSEARCA: UUP), all are traded higher in the pre-market times. All major indices, including the Dow Jones (NYSEARCA: DIA), Nasdaq (NASDAQ: QQQ) and S & amp; P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY) have decreased by around 1%. Oil (NYSEARA: USO) has risen sharply to almost 4%, at highs that have not been seen since last May. The entire raw material complex is experiencing a strong upward trend, as the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSEARCA: DBC), an increase of 1.75%, a very strong step for such a historically stable fund. All in all, the steps aren't too extreme given the potential war between Iran and the United States at this point. # WorldWar3 is a trend on Twitter, although admittedly it doesn't say much, apart from the state of the impetuous collective thinking of social media. "Data-reactid =" 12 "> First, the markets that respond as expected. Event type: Safe havens such as gold (NYSEARCA: GLD), long-term government bonds (NYSEARCA: TLT) and the US dollar index (NYSEARCA: UUP) are all trading higher during pre-market times The Dow Jones (NYSEARCA: DIA), the Nasdaq (NASDAQ: QQQ) and the S & P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY) have fallen by around 1%. such as the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSEARCA: DBC) with a plus of 1.75% shows extremely considering the potential for the entire war between Iran and the United States at this time. # WorldWar3 is a trend on Twitter, t Admittedly, that doesn't say much beyond the state of impetuous collective thinking on social media.

Iran has already threatened retaliation, although it is unclear what the country's leadership will do or what it can do. More oil tankers may be intercepted or U.S. drones disrupted in the region, which the Trump administration has done in the past due to ongoing U.S. sanctions on the Iranian oil industry. Iran could potentially become even more aggressive in these oil disruption missions, which would lead to an increase in oil prices, which Saudi Arabia, Iran's enemy, has been trying to construct for years since the 2014 oil collapse.

Any serious escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States could also result in the impeachment talk being kept to a minimum, which is not yet official, as the House of Representatives is not yet forwarding the impeachment articles to the Senate for fear has what the Republican-controlled Senate could do once it has a free hand to call witnesses.

As more and more US troops move to Iraq, which looks like a showdown, military spending outside of Washington should continue to increase, which will further exacerbate the already huge deficit in the federal budget. It is unclear whether China is able or willing to buy more government bonds to finance this deficit. Given the stalemate in the trade talks, the first phase trade agreement has not yet been signed. The Federal Reserve may need to go a step further to fill the gap with new money.

The U.S. and Sulemani have been fighting since the early 1980s, when the Reagan administration made an alliance with Saddam Hussein in its war against Iran between 1980 and 1988. If the United States had never been involved in this war at all, it is unclear whether the two successive Gulf Wars would have followed at all.

At this point, the world is holding its breath for what Iran will do in response to the strike, but military spending will almost certainly increase on both sides as signs of the global economy stall. Now that more resources are being spent on war, the chances of a recession in 2020 have increased significantly.

Another possible effect of recent events could be a surge in liquidity, which we see immediately after the US Federal Reserve system. This should require further Fed easing as US dollar demand rises above the $ 500 billion promised to take advantage of the 2020 turnaround without successfully managing overnight credit markets.

2020 did indeed start with a bang. It remains to be seen whether it will lead to good or bad things in the end.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The contribution Market morning special: Franz Ferdinand moment? The Iranian general Soleimani rests in pieces first appeared on Exclusively on the market, "data-reactid =" 20 "> The post-market morning special: Franz Ferdinand Moment – The Iranian general Soleimani Rests in Pieces first appeared on Market Exclusive.