Natural gas price prediction – price consolidation after inventory



Gas prices recovered from session lows and closed in the black despite lower than expected natural gas consumption reported by the Department of Energy. Gas prices fell 1.7% during the week. The subdued movement in natural gas prices can be seen despite an increase in the price of oil, which was driven by geopolitical risks. The weather in the US is bifurcated. While the west is expected to be colder than normal in the next 8 to 14 days, the east coast is expected to be much warmer than normal, according to the latest NOAA forecast.

Technical specifications

Falling natural gas prices remained largely unchanged on Friday, according to the Department of Energy’s report on natural gas reserves. The prices pushed down by the December continuation contract fell to a low of 2.15, which is now seen as short-term resistance. Additional resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.21. The support for natural gas prices can be seen on a long-term trend line on a weekly chart that is close to 2.07. The momentum has now turned negative as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) index generated a crossover sell signal. This happens when the MACD index (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) falls below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram prints red with a decreasing trajectory, which indicates lower prices.

Inventories are falling less than expected

The Energy Information Administration announced on Friday, December 27th, a natural gas reserve of cf 3,192 billion, which corresponds to a net loss of cf 58 billion compared to the previous week. According to the survey provider Estimize, the expectations were a draw of 83 Bcf. At that time, the shares were 484 Bcf higher than in the previous year and 38 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,230 Bcf. With 3,192 Bcf, the total working gas is in the historical five-year range.

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