It's rare for a college basketball conference game of the year to start so early in the day. Make sure you're ready for a power lunch when Baylor # 1 hosts No.3 Kansas in the Big 12 on Saturday (noon, ESPN).
Both teams worked very hard to reach number 1 in the NCAA tournament next month. Both are on the shortlist of championship favorites, which means that this year's "short" list is longer than usual in a parity-rich season. And surprisingly, given the respect in the leaderboard, both teams have recently made fortunes for weather.
VSiN has often mentioned that betting markets tend to underestimate great teams because it is believed that the lines are inflated by "stupid money" from recreational bets. This helped condense the lines for the seasonally distributed Moloch LSU during the college football championship chase and for the Super Bowl chiefs.
Is Kansas Baylor our next college hoops champion? The ability of both to consistently overcome hurdles could indicate the possibility.
- Kansas is 15-6 against spreading its last 21 games, though it has been one of the most "public" teams in the sport for years. Kansas has to play at a very high level to meet, let alone exceed, market expectations. A run with 15-6 points is astonishing in this context.
- Baylor is 10-3 against the spread in the Big 12 game and also dominated Florida, 72-61, as a two-point outsider in the Big 12 / SEC Challenge. (Why were the bears outsiders?) Recent betting patterns have repeatedly shown that sharp points make the bears fade due to the expected regression. This has only worked three times since the New Year.
This is a rematch of a Baylor shocker in Lawrence, Kan., On January 11th. Baylor (+8) scored 20 points in a 67-55 stroke. Baylor's offensive won the 2-point shoot with 46 to 44 percent and scored Treys 8-4 with just five sales. Baylor's defense enforced 14 turnovers and held Kansas & # 39; 7-foot Udoka Azubuike to just six points in 32 minutes.
In other words, no coincidence. Kansas may have received 11: 5 free throw home cooking, but is still double-digit lost.
Baylor continues to pass litmus tests in an impressive way. But Kansas is a 75 percent cover team that hasn't played Baylor in their last 20 games and will have the motivating effect of revenge on Saturday. At the same time, there is a tendency for losers to make important adjustments in the first game while the winners remain.
Azubuike should have a chip on his shoulder. Kansas leading scorer Devon Dotson was hobbled at the first meeting. Fans and weather should see the best that Kansas has to offer.
Every major college basketball game in February is an opportunity to scout for March betting.
Even if you switch from soccer to basketball before dancing, Kansas-Baylor is a must.
Also, keep an eye out for other college teams that could add value through March due to market stubbornness. The work you do in February will pay off in March.