LAS VEGAS – Millions of dollars changed hands when Patrick Mahomes ended a historic raid on Sunday and led a Super Bowl comeback in which the Chiefs led the NFL world and the 49ers and their supporters of the bets remained broken.
Sometimes preparing for the biggest betting event of the year can lead to disappointment. This was not one of those times.
Coast-to-coast betting providers were ready for a great win before Mahomes completed two touchdowns in the last 6½ minutes to help Kansas City win a 31:20 win over San Francisco. The Chiefs closed as one-point favorites and the over / under was 53.
"Our best scenario was the 49ers and less," said Jay Kornegay, vice president of Westgate SuperBook. “We let the 49ers annoy us. It could have been a monster day. But the 49ers screwed it up.
“Mahomes is just the best player in the league and he could have beaten the best team. Mahomes just does too many plays. He is unbelievable. And he didn't even have his "A" game. "
Mahomes was also in the middle of three popular bets, which had a huge impact on the end result of the books, for better or worse.
During the celebrations and confetti in Miami, Mahomes was voted MVP of the game. The chief's quarterback was the favorite to win it, but the weather sprayed action all over the place to get a long shot.
"The MVP was the biggest prop we have ever won," said William Hill sports betting chief Nick Bogdanovich. "And that was a prop that you couldn't even book a few years ago."
Before cleaning up the MVP props, the books were paid out to Mahomes to get the first touchdown of the game with a odds of 20/1. Mahomes scored a 1-yard run in the first quarter, 31 seconds ahead.
“It was a six-figure swing for us. It was our worst prop of the day, ”said Kornegay. "We were in the hole right in front of the gate."
The total for Mahomes' hurried yards may have been the worst prop stroke – or happiest win – in Super Bowl history. The over / under opened at 28¹ / ₂ and was set to 38¹ / ₂ in some books. Mahomes sat on 44 yards with one minute of kneeling to end 5, 3 and 7 yard losses in three 29 yard games.
"It was brutal," said Bogdanovich. "It's one thing if he takes a loss for a few meters, but for 15? It was incredible. There was also a lot of action on this prop. The Sharps were all on the under and the public kept on over. "
PointsBet, an online sports betting provider in New Jersey, chose to refund all stakes at Mahomes over 30 ½ rushing yards. There were no refunds from William Hill that cost more money to Mahome's hasty yards than any other prop in the game.
In most sports betting, prop betting accounts for around 50 percent of the game volume. The Chiefs-49ers matchup was set to threaten Nevada's Super Bowl betting record of $ 158.6 million, set in 2018 when Philadelphia angered New England.
"In the beginning there wasn't much going on for us," said Kornegay. "When everything was said and done, it was a decent day."
Bogdanovich said that William Hill's bottom line was a winner, with sports betting in the Reno region getting an avalanche of San Francisco weather actions. It was a different story with books in other parts of the country.
"It was good in Nevada, but all the other states were about break even or a little loser," said Bogdanovich. “The California money flowed into the Niners. Everywhere else – New Jersey, Delaware, Rhode Island, Iowa, Mississippi – we were high on the bosses. It only shows the regional focus. "
The largest bet placed on the game was for $ 1 million at the 49ers at MGM Mirage in Las Vegas.
Profit probability models showed that San Francisco had a 96 percent chance of winning when it was between 20 and 10 in the middle of the fourth quarter. Mahomes' comeback journey started with a 44-yard pass to Tyreek Hill in third and 15th place, seven minutes before the finish. Before this game, William Hill announced an in-game line on Kansas City to win with a odds of 6/1.
The Chiefs scored a 1-yard pass from Mahomes to Travis Kelce and took a 2:44 lead after the 5-yard touchdown pass from Mahomes to Damien Williams.
"One game turned the entire script over, and then Mahomes floated on Hill on the third and 15th," said Bogdanovich. "The Niners had the game and just left it out."
Mahomes and the Chiefs share the role of the favorite to win the Super Bowl 2021. William Hill posted 7/1 odds for Kansas City, San Francisco and Baltimore, respectively.