Patrick Mahomes moves a historically close Super Bowl line


LAS VEGAS – When odds makers discussed the Super Bowl 2020 opening line on Sunday night, some preferred the Chiefs, others the 49ers, and everyone was in awe of Patrick Mahomes.

The line opened at William Hill Sportsbook, where big bets were immediately shown on every page. On Monday, the Kansas City consensus line was -1, largely due to the Mahomes factor.

"What I've seen what makes Kansas City so popular is that Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the NFL," said Westgate's SuperBook director John Murray. "The public will want to bet on Mahomes."

In the Chiefs' 35:24 win over Tennessee in the AFC title game, Mahomes passed three touchdowns and scored a spectacular 27-yard run. Murray had leaned his performance to Kansas City-3 as a Super Bowl prelude before the NFC title game began.

"We talked about playing a bigger number after the AFC championship game unless the 49ers banged against Green Bay, and that's exactly what happened," said Murray.

San Francisco took the lead with 37: 20 against the Packers with 27: 0. The 49ers' attack and defense were impressive enough to fill the Super Bowl point distribution gap.

"If these teams played 100 times, it would probably be 50:50," said William Hill, sports betting director Nick Bogdanovich.

A $ 100,000 bet was placed on San Francisco for William Hill books and a $ 33,000 bet on Kansas City. The grand total opened at 51½, and the SuperBook reported a bet of $ 110,000 over the total of 52½, which helped increase the number to 54 and 54¹ / ₂ on other Vegas books. That was the beginning of the two weeks of the most important pre-game operations on February 2nd in Miami.

"We're almost dead even if we have money," said Bogdanovich. "It's a good start to handle that won't be out of this world."

The Chiefs-49ers matchup is expected to break Nevada's Super Bowl betting record of $ 158.6 million, which was set in 2018 when Philadelphia angered New England. In some sports betting, prop betting accounts for more than 50 percent of the game volume. With mahomes on the marquee, the prop business will go quickly.

"We could have a record number of props on Mahomes," said Bogdanovich. "It will all be Mahome. But San Francisco's defense is strong. That's why this matchup is so good. "

The results of the conference championships were ugly for most sports betting providers. With both favorites covering the spread and two points flying over the total, the betting audience made themselves felt like bandits on the windows.

"We were beheaded," said Bogdanovich.

Patrick MahomesGetty Images

Aaron Rodgers' defeat by the 49ers was a credit to Kyle Shanahan's San Francisco game plan, but it was also a pitiful achievement by the Packers on both sides of the ball.

"It was really an embarrassment," said Michael Lombardi, a VSiN analyst and former NFL manager. "Green Bay has been Oklahoma's last four."

To compare college football playoffs, Mahomes and the Chiefs resemble Joe Burrow and the LSU offense that destroyed Clemson's No. 1 goal defense in the national championship game. The 49ers have the best pass defense in the league.

"In my opinion [the 49ers] I have the defensive front to cause Mahome's trouble, ”said Lombardi.

San Francisco had 42 rush attempts for 285 yards against Green Bay, with Raheem Mostert wearing 29 times for 220 yards and four touchdowns. Shanahan had little use of the passing game, and Jimmy Garoppolo went 6-on-8 for just 77 yards.

"I kind of lean against the Niners. I think they will be able to run the ball, ”said Bogdanovich. "We'll see what wins, the greatest player in the world, or the Shanahan pound.

“But Andy Reid is almost unbeatable after bye-bye weeks and this will be like bye-bye week. Reid has two weeks to prepare. "

Reid, the boss's coach, set an 18: 3 record in the regular season after a farewell and is 5-2 in the playoffs after a week's break. Reid lost in his only previous Super Bowl appearance at the Eagles.

"I would give San Francisco a nice advantage over the coaching staff," said Murray. "But I don't know that Jimmy G is a quarterback capable of coming from behind."

The only Super Bowl that came to a close was in 2015 when Russell Wilson was knocked off the goal line at the last minute of Seattle's loss to New England.

"For me," said Murray, "this game is just a roll."