Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN.com, is in its second season with the Post's Bettor & # 39; s Guide. His obstructive works appear in the VSiN online magazine Point Spread Weekly.
Six-point teaser: Kansas City Chiefs + 5 / Over 48.5 (-120 at William Hill): Because of my well-deserved reputation as "dog weather", most people assume that I'll take the outsider San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl. However, I cannot pull the trigger because I actually consider the Chiefs to be the better overall team and more likely to take out the win over Patrick Mahomes and the soaring offense, and improved defense over the course of the season.
The same thing happened last year when all my supporters thought I was going to play the Patriots on the Rams, but I didn't want to fade Bill Belichick and Tom Brady and was quite proud of my decision to pass the Rams on if the Patriots won 13: 3 the lowest-ever Super Bowl (although my best bet was admittedly over 56, we only missed that by 40 points).
So take it with a grain of salty Super Bowl snacks when I say I like the over again, although I liked it better when it opened at 51 to 51 ½. Although the 49ers certainly have a very good defense, the modern game is still offensive and the chiefs simply have too many weapons to take the whole game.
Although the chiefs' defense has improved, the 49ers should still be successful because Raheem Mostert runs wild and prepares QB Jimmy Garoppolo for play action.
While leaning against the chiefs and over, I don't have enough confidence to call a best bet. So I think the best way to play this is a 6 point teaser with the Chiefs +5 and Over 48 ¹ / ₂.
I don't usually recommend crossing out the zero, but it makes sense in a high-score fight back and forth. Although I expect the Chiefs to win, this will protect us if the 49ers win a three or four point win in a tight game or if the Chiefs have to enter the back door. The Over 48¹ / ₂ offers some leeway as it gives us back the earlier lower numbers we missed.
Championship Sunday: 1-1. Titans (L). Packers-49ers Over (W).