The week before us – statistics, impeachment and Brexit move into the background, while Iran is the focus

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<h2 class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "On the macro"data-reactid =" 18 ">On the macro

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text MB (1.0em) MB (0) – SM MB (0.8em) – SM" type = "text" content = "It is a busy week before economic Calendar, with 51 statistics to be monitored. In the previous week, only 27 statistics were in focus. "Data-reactid =" 19 "> There is a busy week ahead of 51 statistics to be monitored on the economic calendar, compared to only 27 in the previous week.

After the Christmas season and the lack of trend-setting statistics, we saw some important moves when volumes returned to normal levels.

For the dollar:

On Tuesday, November, factory orders and ISM values ​​for non-production PMIs in December are leading the way.

The focus will then shift to Wednesday's ADP figures for the change in employment in December. Solid labor market conditions have continued to support the US economy, so expect sensitivity to the numbers.

With economic data limited to weekly unemployment claims on Thursday, the numbers on wages and wage growth outside of agriculture complete things on Friday.

While the ADP will guide the way, you expect wage growth and the NFP and unemployment rate to have the greatest impact.

Markit's final PMI numbers on Monday and Tuesday's trading data are likely to be cautious on the dollar.

From a geopolitical perspective, the signing of the US-China Phase 1 agreement, Brexit and the Middle East must also be considered.

The murder of Iranian military commander Soleimani increases the prospect of the United States being involved in proxy wars across the region.

The dollar spot index ended the week down 0.08% to $ 96.838.

<h3 class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "For the EUR: "data-reactid =" 30 ">For the EUR:

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text MB (1.0em) MB (0) – SM MB (0.8em) – SM" type = "text" content = "It is also a particularly busy week in the future economic data front. "data-reactid =" 31 "> There is also a particularly busy week ahead in the area of ​​economic data.

On Monday, November, retail sales in Germany will be the main driver at the beginning of the week.

The service sector PMI figures from Spain and Italy in December, as well as the final composite PMI of the euro area, will also guide the way.

The focus will then shift to Eurozone retail sales, which will appear on Tuesday and German factory orders on Wednesday.

Expect a responsive EUR on Thursday ahead of German trade and industrial production and unemployment in the eurozone.

There are no statistics released on Friday to indicate the direction that will put the EUR in the hands of geopolitics.

The British Parliament break ends on Thursday. So expect the political chatter to increase at the end of the week. While Brexit remains a focus, markets could be distracted from the Middle East in the coming week.

Regarding monetary policy, the minutes of the ECB's monetary policy meeting will also be published on Thursday.

EUR / USD ended the week down 0.14% to $ 1.1161.

For the pound:

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text MB (1.0em) MB (0) – SM MB (0.8em) – SM" type = "text" content = "It is a relatively busy week before economic Calendar, Key statistics include the closed service sector and composite PMI numbers on Monday and the BRC retail monitor on Thursday. "Data-reactid =" 41 "> A relatively busy week is ahead on the economic calendar, with key statistics including the closed service sector and composite PMI numbers, PMI numbers on Monday and BRC Retail Sales Monitor numbers on Thursday.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "3rd Labor productivity figures for the quarter will also point the way on Wednesday. "data-reactid =" 42 "> 3rd The quarter's labor productivity figures will also set the direction on Wednesday.

We expect Wednesday and Thursday house price numbers in December to have a subtle impact on the pound.

Aside from the numbers, all eyes will be on Parliament when MPs return on Thursday. Talk about Brexit is sure to grow, and Johnson will likely want to suppress any negative talk about trade negotiations.

GBP / USD rose 0.04% to USD 1.3083 over the weekend.

For the loonie:

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text MB (1.0em) MB (0) – SM MB (0.8em) – SM" type = "text" content = "It is a relatively busy week before economic Calendar, After disappointing GDP figures before the holidays, we can expect some movement in the coming week. "Data-reactid =" 47 "> After the disappointment of the GDP figures before the holidays, a relatively busy week is in sight. Expect some movement in the coming week.

Key statistics are the November trade data and the Ivey PMI for December on Tuesday and the employment figures for December on Friday.

November's RMPI numbers for Monday will also have an impact, while Thursday's real estate numbers are likely to be pushed aside.

The phase 1 agreement between the USMCA and the United States of America and China promotes global trade. While the markets may forgive, some bad numbers could test the market's determination …

Regarding monetary policy, BoC Governor Poloz is expected to speak late Thursday. A change in sentiment towards monetary policy will have a significant impact on the loonie. Poloz had previously viewed interest rates as adequate to support the economy. Since these comments, the statistics have been anything but impressive. While the numbers indicate that further support is needed, the revision of the USMCA should relieve the immediate pressure to take a step.

The loonie ended the week up 0.60% against the US dollar to $ 1,3001.

Get out of Asia

For the Aussie dollar:

It's also a relatively busy week ahead of us.

November's trade numbers for November and Friday's retail sales will have the biggest impact.

The December AIG Manufacturing Index and November building permits due on Monday and Wednesday are expected to be disregarded.

While hopes of a revival in world trade support the Aussie dollar, the RBA continues to rely on household spending.

Expect a lot of sensitivity. Trade talks from Beijing and Washington will also have an impact, as will increasing tensions in the Middle East …

The Aussie dollar closed the week down 0.43% to $ 0.6950.

For the kiwi dollar:

No statistics are due for New Zealand in the coming week.

The lack of statistics will leave the kiwi dollar a week in the hands of market risk sentiment and commodity prices.

The kiwi dollar closed the week down 0.52% to $ 0.6664.

For the Japanese yen:

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "It's a quiet week on economic Calendar, The final private sector PMI figures for Tuesday and November Friday budget spending are the focus. "Data-reactid =" 70 "> It's a quiet week in the economic calendar, with the final private sector PMI figures for household spending on Tuesday and November on Friday.

We assume that household spending will have the greatest impact.

While the statistics will provide direction, sentiment towards the Phase 1 trade agreement and likely effects on the Japanese economy will be the main drivers.

If the situation in the Middle East worsens, the yen could rise to ¥ 105.

The Japanese yen ended the week up 1.23% to ¥ 108.09 against the US dollar.

Get out of China

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text MB (1.0em) MB (0) – SM MB (0.8em) – SM" type = "text" content = "It is a relatively busy week on economic data Front. The PMI for the service sector in December is due on Monday. "Data-reactid =" 76 "> From an economic point of view, the week is relatively full. The PMI for the service sector in December is due on Monday.

While manufacturing activities continue to have a greater impact, the contribution of the service sector to the Chinese economy has increased.

Expect markets to react to Monday's numbers.

Inflation figures will also be in focus on Thursday, December. Wholesale inflation must move upward to address concerns about corporate margins and profitability.

The yuan ended the week up 0.42% to CNY 6.9663 against the greenback.

geopolitics

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Impeachment: Little progress has been made in the past week. The impeachment proceedings against Trump could be postponed until mid-January. However, the timing of the U.S. drone strikes in the Middle East was interesting … We haven't heard of Republicans trying to jump off the Republican unit ship … This could change if additional impeachment articles get on the news wire. "data-reactid =" 82 ">Impeachment: Little progress has been made in the past week. The impeachment proceedings against Trump could be postponed until mid-January. However, the timing of the US drone strikes in the Middle East was interesting. We haven't heard of Republicans trying to jump off the Republican unit ship. This could change if additional impeachment articles get into the communication wires.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "trade wars: A 15th The signing of the Phase 1 contract in January remains positive for the markets. The focus will then be on what lies ahead and few expect a comprehensive trade deal to be signed before the presidential election. Existing tariffs could continue to burden global trade, the figures for the first quarter will be revealed. "Data reactid =" 83 ">trade wars: A 15th The signing of the Phase 1 contract in January remains positive for the markets. The focus will then be on what lies ahead and few expect a comprehensive trade deal to be signed before the presidential election. Existing tariffs are likely to continue to burden global trade, and the figures for the first quarter will be meaningful.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "British politics: The British Parliament returns on the 5thth January. Expect Brexit chatter to increase as the UK prepares to leave the EU on December 31stst January. The first order of business and 1st The test for the British Prime Minister is how to deal with the United States' movements in the Middle East. Britain was not informed of the attack in advance … "data-reactid =" 84 ">British politics: The British Parliament returns on the 5thth January. Expect Brexit chatter to increase as the UK prepares to leave the EU on December 31stst January. The first order of business and 1st The test for the British Prime Minister is how to deal with the United States' movements in the Middle East. Britain was not informed of the attack in advance …

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Iran and the Middle East: The drone murder of Iran's highest-ranking military commander shook the markets on Friday. The Iranians did not respond immediately. An Iranian response is expected, however, as Britain is also deploying troops to the region on standby. "Data reactid =" 85 ">Iran and the Middle East: The drone murder of Iran's highest-ranking military commander shook the markets on Friday. The Iranians did not respond immediately. An Iranian response is expected, however, as Britain is also deploying troops to the region on standby.

Trump may be the only one who wants to take on Iran to remove his power in the region, but his allies must intervene. This could result in a blast of air or a full-blown Shiite / Sunni war in which the West is once again on the side of the Sunnis.

How Iran responds will be crucial. Trump has already said the U.S. will respond to retaliation.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "This items was originally published on FX Empire "data-reactid =" 88 "> This article was originally published on FX Empire

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