This week in Trumponomics: The Iranian Assassination

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President Trump has made a significant decision that will shape the last year of his presidency, either increasing his chances of reelection or killing her.

<p class = "Canvas-Atom-Canvas-Text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "By ordering the fatal air raid on the Iranian general Qassem Soleimani Trump has spicytensions escalated with Iran& nbsp; and likely initiate a series of reprisals that will resolve in 2020. & nbsp;The financial markets will not falter alone in this regardHowever, oil prices could rise all year round as traders fear that a major war will break out and oil reserves will be damaged. "data-reactid =" 16 "> Trump's escalation by ordering the fatal air raid on Iranian general Qassem Soleimani Tensions with Iran have likely set in motion a series of reprisals that will resolve in 2020. The financial markets will not act alone, but oil prices could remain elevated year-round as traders worry that a wider war may break out and oil facilities may end damaged.

Iranian protesters respond to a protest against the murder of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Tehran on January 3, 2020. Nazanin Tabatabaee / WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

Higher oil prices would not lead to a recession in the US or damage the economy so much unless they rose to $ 100 or more. The United States produces more oil than ever due to hydraulic fracking, and higher prices are a blessing for oil-stained economies.

But there is now a new geopolitical concern that goes beyond Trump's trade protectionism and impeachment process in the U.S. Senate. Everyone knows that Iran is able to destroy terrorist attacks on a large scale and military attacks. However, the Iranians could hold back to avoid a full-scale military confrontation with the United States. At the moment, the Trump-o-meter rates Trump's decision as Weak, the third lowest rating because it may have been unnecessarily impulsive and poorly thought out.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The murder of the Soleimani dates from Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal that his predecessor Barack Obama had made in 2015. This deal eased sanctions against Iran – especially its ability to sell oil – in return for Iran's promise to suspend the development of the nuclear weapons. Trump revoked the agreement in 2018 and again imposed sanctions on Iran that have harmed its economy. Iran has since fought violently, including attacks by Iranian-backed militias on US bases and interests in Iraq.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Such a militia attack in connection with Iran.killed an American contractor in Iraq& nbsp; on December 27th. The United States bombed the militia on December 29 as a retaliatory measure. This led to & nbsp;stoking violent protestsfrom Iran at the US embassy in Baghdad. Then came the January 2 strike, in which Soleimani and five others were killed. "Data-reactid =" 60 "> Such a militia attack linked to Iran killed an American contractor in Iraq on December 27. The United States continued to bomb the militia in retaliation on December 29th. This led to violent protests by Iran in the US embassy in Baghdad incited, and then went on strike on January 2 that killed Soleimani and five others.

Soleimani led terrorist operations for Iran in the Middle East and elsewhere. He was undoubtedly an enemy of the United States. But he was also a high-ranking official of a sovereign nation, who was on an equal footing with the Secretary of Defense or CIA chief. And now he's a martyr in Iran. The big question for Trump: What does it cost to kill him?

Some kind of retribution seems certain. Eurasia Group analysts believe it is likely that Iran will strike back inside Iraq and use the same militias to attack US military bases and other facilities. Civilians seem vulnerable as far as Iran can reach them. Iran also has capable cyber warriors who could try to hit the US mainland with hacks or other types of digital attacks.

<p class = "Canvas-Atom Canvas-Text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Iran would probably prefer to see Trump lose in 2020 and negotiate with a Democrat who tends to restore the terms of the Obama-era nuclear deal.Plausible Iran could plan a terrorist attackor another disruption on the eve of the 2020 election. This gives cause for concern throughout 2020, even if it is not. That's why Trump should know better what he's getting into. "Data-reactid =" 63 "> Iran would likely prefer to see Trump lose in 2020 and deal with a Democrat who is willing to restore the terms of the Obama era nuclear deal, so it is plausible that the Iran may be planning a terrorist attack or other disturbance on the eve of the 2020 elections, which is cause for concern, even if it is not, so Trump should know better what he is getting into.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Rick Newman is the author of four books, including "Rebounders: How winners go from setback to successFollow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman, Confidential tip line: rickjnewman@yahoo.com, Encrypted communication available. Click here to Receive Rick's stories via email,"data-reactid =" 64 ">Rick Newman is the author of four books, including "Rebounders: How winners go from setback to successFollow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman, Confidential tip line: rickjnewman@yahoo.com, Encrypted communication available. Click here to Receive Rick's stories via email,

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