Who says coaching doesn't matter in the NBA? It is important for teams and it is important for weather.
On December 5, Denver's Knicks (+ 8¹ / ₂) were torn down between 129 and 92, efforts so small that the players basically announced they were going on strike against coach David Fizdale. With this result, they were 4: 18 in a row, 10: 12 against spreads of points that the Knicks had correctly placed at the end of the league in terms of performance evaluation. The Knicks did not meet the low expectations.
Since the dismissal of Fizdale and the promotion of Mike Miller to the interim coach, the Knicks have been on the rise at 13:20 (19: 13: 1 ATS). The push is a loss of overtime that would have cost regular tickets.
This is a jump from 0.181 directly upwards, 45 percent compared to the spread, to 0.394 directly upwards, 59 percent compared to the spread.
This is still nothing that resembles a playoff team that will be back against Indiana on Friday night. But the Knicks tend to start every night. And at a level of performance that is much higher than expected by the betting markets.
This was particularly true of days leading up to the All Star break. The Knicks have been 4-1-1 ATS in the last six games, including this unfortunate kick. New York is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 games, with competitive coverage against the 76s, Raptors and Lakers … and clean wins over the Nets, Pacer and Magic (along with the Pistons once and the Cavaliers twice).
VSiN has often mentioned that bad teams can be good bets. The Knicks are the most recent memory. The trick for weather is now to determine whether New York will offer value in the future.
- Will the odds makers stop judging the kinks like floor mats? Make sure you monitor opening lines and early moves that first week after the break to see if the markets are responding to the recent form. The hurdles could rise.
- Will opponents take the Knicks more seriously? It's easier to catch teams napping when they think you're not a big threat. New York still has a talent deficit compared to most opponents … a large deficit against elites.
- Will the Knicks hit a wall themselves because they've been playing over their heads for a few weeks? Effort can be maintained, but happiness cannot.
New York will continue to be a wise bet if the recent momentum continues. But any wrench can mess up the money machine.
The most immediate problem is likely to be the Knicks' ability to maintain intensity against a range of tough opponents. Many opponents of the playoff caliber are on the plan: Friday against Indiana, Monday in Houston, Thursday in Philadelphia, March 2 against Houston, March 4 against Utah, March 6 against Oklahoma City (these are the building blocks in the Mauer New York could hit right away).
If New York continues to redeem tickets for this glove, it could be a weather builder by March.