Years of stock gains are imminent, but also scary withdrawals, ”says the strategist

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<pre><pre>Years of stock gains are imminent, but also scary withdrawals, ”says the strategist

Trade deal phase one. Done.

Does that mean we can start getting a grip on phase two? While a renewed escalation of tensions between the US and China is always possible, the Dow is initially optimistic

DJIA, + 0.31%

and S & P 500

SPX, + 0.19%

Notification of new records on a day with low income.

Our Call of the day Ciovacco Capital Management's founder and CEO, Chris Ciovacco, told MarketWatch that investors should prepare for years to come in this bull market, even if there are some “scary setbacks”.

Ciovacco claimed in May and October that stocks still had at least two years of earnings ahead of them. While 2019 didn't go smoothly for investors, the S&P rewarded 500 loyal bulls with the best annual profit since 2013,

He said the big picture for stocks is now coming together. "A good argument can be made that the stock market reached a cyclical low in 2018 in the context of a secular trend," said Ciovacco. He alluded to this huge decline in equities in December 2018, while a worldly trend points to a rising or falling market trend. It can take five to 25 years, peppered with smaller bear or bull markets.

"History says the global trend could push stocks up for another five to 15 years," he added. But then withdrawals can be part of it, and he found that inventories increased from 1982 to 2000, while there were significant declines in 1983, 1987, 1990, and 1998.


He referred to the chart above, which "shows the rare and one-sided breadth of the market that characterizes the early stages of stock movements that began in 1982, 1985, 1991, 1995, 2003 and 2009." The breadth of the market relates to the number of stocks declining compared to them, and as more stocks go up, this can confirm an upward trend and keep bulls at the top.

"Consensus has been saying" late cycle "for several years," said Ciovacco. Indeed, some have feared that the markets and the economy have gone well, but the end has been reached. "History says that we should be open to the cycle from early to mid-term regarding a worldly stock market trend," he said.

Read: The last time this "clear danger symbol" lit up on the stock exchange was in 1999

The market

Dow

YM00, + 0.22%.

S & P

ES00, + 0.28%

and Nasdaq

NQ00, + 0.34%

are higher, although European stocks

SXXP, -0.08%

slip. Asian markets

Adow, + 0.25%

Adow, + 0.25%

Adow, + 0.25%

had a mixed day.

Read: Winklevoss twins say Wall Street hasn't really dealt with cryptocurrencies yet

The graphic

The following table from The Daily Shot shows the Cass Freight Index, which measures monthly freight activity and can be used to monitor economic developments in North America. It shows how a freight recession deepened in December, with the decline in 2019 being “the worst in ten years”.


The economy

Weekly unemployment claims, retail sales, the Philadelphia Federal Index and import prices are just around the corner, followed by corporate inventories and an index of house builders.

The buzz

The result is ahead of Bank Morgan Stanley

MRS, + 0.15%

and broker Charles Schwab

SCHW, -1.24%,

Late on Wednesday, aluminum producer Alcoa

AA, -0.93%

recorded a quarterly loss above expectations and disappointing sales.

Apple

AAPL, -0.43%

Chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor

2330, -1.62%

saw profit growth and higher sales, which boosted related European stocks.

Result Preview: IBM

Random readings

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The author Stephen King has been criticized for his comments on the diversity of the Oscars.

The European legislator wants all smartphones to have the same charging point.

Lawsuit says Jeffrey Epstein used the Virgin Islands territory to abuse and haunt girls for almost two decades.

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